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Post by LA Angels GM on Jan 8, 2016 13:36:38 GMT -5
Bracho isn't my typical winter draft selection.
The last several years, I've taken long-term prospects with high upside. I've been scouting a few young, high-upside guys, but all of them came with too much risk for me to pull the trigger right now. I'm curious to see where, or even if, they get drafted. If they don't, I can jump on them in the summer draft if they've reduced some of their risk.
There was another player I was looking at to help me right away, and I'm sure he'll get drafted later this draft. His ZiPS didn't jump out at me, though, and I don't feel as though his ceiling is as high as Bracho's is.
So, I listened to another member of this fine league and decided to do what I never do and draft a reliever. His ZiPS for 2016 are awesome. K percentage of 30.7%. Walk percentage of 6.1%. 3.09 FIP. 130 ERA+. You're looking at my closer in 2016, people! And since I was going to sign a closer this off-season anyway, I just saved a bunch of money. But is he a 1-year wonder? He's small, but he throws pretty hard (mid-90's). Is he a max-effort guy that could be prone to injury? Who knows. But I love that he has a mid-90's fastball, a low 70's changeup, and two other pitches he isn't afraid to use. This dude seems like he can pitch, and hopefully he'll be able to stick around for a bit.
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Post by Pirates GM on Jan 8, 2016 16:33:08 GMT -5
I've really liked this crazy diversity of selections over the last few players.
I actually like the Bracho pick, although at first I thought his name was "Brancho", which would've been more awesome, because then he'd sound like a porno actor.
After a while, blowing a ton of cap space filling your pen with V contracts is for the birds. It's nice to draft 1 or 2 young, high-ceiling RP to supplement the back end of the pen, and keep costs down. The Winter Draft is a nice time to take guys, because not only do they have the season under their belt, but a lot of them already have ZiPS out, so there are no surprises.
JIm
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Post by Texas GM on Jan 9, 2016 8:36:30 GMT -5
Bracho isn't my typical winter draft selection. The last several years, I've taken long-term prospects with high upside. I've been scouting a few young, high-upside guys, but all of them came with too much risk for me to pull the trigger right now. I'm curious to see where, or even if, they get drafted. If they don't, I can jump on them in the summer draft if they've reduced some of their risk. There was another player I was looking at to help me right away, and I'm sure he'll get drafted later this draft. His ZiPS didn't jump out at me, though, and I don't feel as though his ceiling is as high as Bracho's is. So, I listened to another member of this fine league and decided to do what I never do and draft a reliever. His ZiPS for 2016 are awesome. K percentage of 30.7%. Walk percentage of 6.1%. 3.09 FIP. 130 ERA+. You're looking at my closer in 2016, people! And since I was going to sign a closer this off-season anyway, I just saved a bunch of money. But is he a 1-year wonder? He's small, but he throws pretty hard (mid-90's). Is he a max-effort guy that could be prone to injury? Who knows. But I love that he has a mid-90's fastball, a low 70's changeup, and two other pitches he isn't afraid to use. This dude seems like he can pitch, and hopefully he'll be able to stick around for a bit. I had Bracho on my radar and followed him all year. It's a tough strategy to measure. I took Addison Reed late in a summer draft one year, knowing he was a closer and knowing it would save me payroll money for years. I also took Trevor Rosenthal late in the Winter Draft, though, I took him as a SP and am still pissed that the Cards called him up late season to help in the pen. He was so good that they kept him in that role. I guess it's all of a crap shoot. Do you take the best SP and hope that, at worst case, they turn into a great RP, or do you take a great RP prospect and hope he can duplicate that over a long enough period to merit passing on a legit SP or position prospect. Bracho has a strange cut fastball, a wicked change and curve. This might be a RP that actually pays off for 4-5-6 years.
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Post by Cubbies on Jan 11, 2016 12:52:00 GMT -5
I like the Cody Reed pick. He wasn't my top selection, but he was most likely in my top 10 candidates for pick #29. I had Baldoquin on my peripheral radar as well, but I wanted to see more success in the minors before drafting him. But if he started 2016 hot, I might've considered him for the Summer Draft. He's had some glowing reports about his baseball smarts.
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Post by Pirates GM on Jan 11, 2016 21:29:47 GMT -5
I'm starting to think about my pick really hard now. It's going to be so, so grindery. I don't think any of the guys I'm looking at are under age 24.
And no, that's not the first time I've typed that on a message board.
JIm
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Post by Texas GM on Jan 12, 2016 19:56:49 GMT -5
Nathan, the new KC owner is already on my shit list. Not that I expected to have Riley fall all the way to me, but I thought going in that he was among the top 5-6 players in this draft. I was wondering who was targeting him. Good first pick of your NSBL career.
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Post by Cubbies on Jan 12, 2016 20:21:00 GMT -5
Omitting the top three that were chosen because I knew I had no chance at them, Riley was in my top 5, maybe as high as third. Solid first pick in the league.
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Whitesox
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I'm just here for the free kool-aid
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Post by Whitesox on Jan 12, 2016 20:36:10 GMT -5
I really like Riley, he was 4th on my list after the first 3 guys that were taken. Real good pick Nate!
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Post by Deleted on Jan 12, 2016 20:53:35 GMT -5
That is a solid first pick. He was on my list but Nate isn't making my shit list because there was no way I was going to sniff him.
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Post by bluejaysgm on Jan 12, 2016 20:55:40 GMT -5
LOVE the Riley pick!!!
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Post by Texas GM on Jan 13, 2016 0:03:18 GMT -5
That is a solid first pick. He was on my list but Nate isn't making my shit list because there was no way I was going to sniff him. Nothing against Nate really. I just thought that you're nobody here if you don't hold a grudge against someone. I have to read the rules again.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2016 5:49:09 GMT -5
That is a solid first pick. He was on my list but Nate isn't making my shit list because there was no way I was going to sniff him. Nothing against Nate really. I just thought that you're nobody here if you don't hold a grudge against someone. I have to read the rules again. I'm not saying he won't wind up on my list, only that Riley isn't the reason. Also, the rules state that you're nobody in this league until you have had a public message board brawl with Jim. You achieved that during the salary cap discussions. Welcome to the club.
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Post by bigredmachine on Jan 13, 2016 9:27:04 GMT -5
Riley was on my list as well but never thought he'd really get to me. After stealing Albies last year, no way another Braves stud would fall to me.
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Post by Texas GM on Jan 14, 2016 11:31:52 GMT -5
Looks like the draft is in crawl mode now, which might be good news for me. I have to travel to Vegas on business from the 17th and won't be back until late on the 22nd. My pick is due on the 27th, so I should be up to speed and ready anytime between the 23rd and the 27th.
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Post by BrewCrewGuru on Jan 14, 2016 11:47:43 GMT -5
I'm gonna pick @ midnight MST. I'm nervous. I guess my guy isn't the top 10 prospect I thought he was, but I'm still really excited. If Karri picks him, I've got a couple of plan B options that I'll be deliberating over while I wait for midnight to get here.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2016 12:47:05 GMT -5
I'm gonna pick @ midnight MST. I'm nervous. I guess my guy isn't the top 10 prospect I thought he was, but I'm still really excited. If Karri picks him, I've got a couple of plan B options that I'll be deliberating over while I wait for midnight to get here. The delay in picks is just that much more time for me to feel like I am the only one who knows about the future HOF, diamond in the rough hidden in plain sight guy sitting atop my list currently. For a while yet I continue to be a legend in my own mind. Once my guy is picked I have to build all that momentum up again.
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Post by Texas GM on Jan 14, 2016 14:57:53 GMT -5
I'm gonna pick @ midnight MST. I'm nervous. I guess my guy isn't the top 10 prospect I thought he was, but I'm still really excited. If Karri picks him, I've got a couple of plan B options that I'll be deliberating over while I wait for midnight to get here. The delay in picks is just that much more time for me to feel like I am the only one who knows about the future HOF, diamond in the rough hidden in plain sight guy sitting atop my list currently. For a while yet I continue to be a legend in my own mind. Once my guy is picked I have to build all that momentum up again. I think that's a contagious feeling. My 5 Winter Draft picks since I joined. Guilermo Pimentel - Dealt for Rickie Weeks and cash. Trevor Rosenthal - drafted as a SP, turned into stud closer. Sean Nolin - can't seem to stay healthy enough to grab a rotation spot. Still some hope there. Tim Cooney - Dealt with RP Luke Jackson for 4 years of control on Wade Miley. Aristides Aquino - only 21 and still hoping he meets his potential. Broke his wrist last season on a HBP. SIGH !
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2016 15:30:11 GMT -5
My winter draft record hasn't been horrible.
Aaron Miller - pitcher out of Baylor who now has his left arm stapled to his body. Converted to a poor DH
Jose Iglesias - despite teh Red Sox best efforts has turned into a major league shortstop
Mason Williams - struggled long enough for me to add as a sweetener to a trade, now looking like he may have a career afterall
Alex Wood - Will be in my rotation again this year
Alex Reyes - Dealt for Yasiel Puig
Carson Sands - Young lefty starter in the Cubs system.
2 of the 6 will be on my 25 man roster and 2 more have been part of trades that resulted in others still on my active roster. Only Miller was unceremoniously dumped.
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Post by BrewCrewGuru on Jan 14, 2016 18:53:56 GMT -5
Things I can learn from my Winter Drafts - I should stop trading my prospects as I seem to have a pretty decent track record in the Winter portion of our draft. I should stop trading picks because I might have better success in the Summer Draft if I had more practice. I need to value prospects. I will probably ignore all these lessons while my friends in this league continue to tell me "I told you so."
2014 - Sam Tuivailala - RP - On the roster as Righty Setup 2013 - Ryan McMahon - 1B/3B/OF - Ill-advised trade 2012 - Adalberto Mondesi - SS - Ill-advised trade 2011 - Joe Ross - RHP - Ill-advised trade 2010 - Donnie Joseph - LHP - Flamed-out potential closer (walks) 2009 - Christian Colon - IF - Meh! (but I'd draft him again!)
2013 - Ruined immediately in 2014 when I acquired Lucas Duda and Zach Lee then proceeded to trade both of them. N00B move! 2012 - I'm the jackass that drafts Mondesi, trades Mondesi, re-acquires Mondesi, and trades him again. I need a baseball therapist to work out these issues. 2011 - I thought Cam Maybin was going to be a stud. I'm better at drafting than trading. I should learn my lesson.
None of this reflection is going to change a thing. It's just interesting to look back at these mistakes.
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Post by Cubbies on Jan 14, 2016 23:18:41 GMT -5
It has become increasingly apparent that Karri is no longer operating her team. She never sent in ARB/OPT decisions, has not returned some trade inquiry emails, and has not return text messages from myself or another owner. Due to this, we are now considering that team unowned, and as such, the committee will select for her.
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Post by Pirates GM on Jan 15, 2016 6:25:56 GMT -5
Hey, not that I'm trying to call attention to Sean's pick in any way, but just trying to understand the rules. Leyva has only been in the states for one season out of Cuba. Does that not matter for the Winter Draft?
Thanks guys,
JIm
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Post by Texas GM on Jan 15, 2016 6:35:21 GMT -5
Hey, not that I'm trying to call attention to Sean's pick in any way, but just trying to understand the rules. Leyva has only been in the states for one season out of Cuba. Does that not matter for the Winter Draft? Thanks guys, JIm International free agents signed by MLB are not eligible for the draft until such time as they have completed their first season of professional ball in the United States (no Dominican Summer, Mexican, Venezuelan League, etc). Arizona Fall League does count. International players who play even one game in the Major Leagues lose their draft eligibility and are only available via free agency.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 15, 2016 6:48:54 GMT -5
Hey, not that I'm trying to call attention to Sean's pick in any way, but just trying to understand the rules. Leyva has only been in the states for one season out of Cuba. Does that not matter for the Winter Draft? Thanks guys, JIm International signings have always come available in the winter draft following the season in which they make their stateside debut. The situation also pertains to the top 3 picks in the winter draft this year. Ty can fill you in on those
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Post by LA Angels GM on Jan 15, 2016 8:58:22 GMT -5
This is fun. Let's see how crappy my winter picks have turned out. I need to begin keeping track of my trades, because some of these guys I've traded, but I can't remember for the life of me who I traded them for.
2009 - Wilkin Ramirez - Crap. I was new to the league and didn't know a whole lot. That said, I had a pretty good team at this point and just needed to add some depth pieces. Being a Tiger fan, I bought into the hype that Wilkin was the next great thing. So depth now + a future superstar? I was sold! Ended up releasing him, but he did spend 3 seasons with me as a back-up outfielder, collecting a total of 311 AB's. So I guess I did succeed in getting a depth piece. This pick made even worse when I notice that David Freese was picked 3 picks after me and Michael Trout 4 picks after me.
2010 - Daniel Descalso - Meh. Picking 27th, there wasn't a whole lot I could do. I went into the off-season really only needing a 2nd baseman, and Descalso had just had decent ZiPS put out. So I drafted him with plans of him being a cheap second baseman for me for a few years. Didn't quite work out that way. Kept him for 2 mostly unspectacular seasons before trading him for something, though his 2011 wasn't bad (.274/.323/.418 with 9 HR's in 347 AB's)
2011 - Lucas Duda - Yay! Went into the draft needing an outfielder. I was debating between him and Mike Carp. I chose correctly, then chose incorrectly when I assumed his real-life 2014 was a fluke, so I traded him while I thought his value would be highest. Boy, was I wrong. I'd love to have him back right now. Still, he spent 3 seasons with me and is currently 5th on my career HR list (anyone else notice that I'm keeping nerdy stats of my mostly crappy teams? What a nerd that Angels owner is).
2012 - Dorssys Paulino - Meh. First time picking near the top of the draft. Changed my strategy to take a high risk/high reward guy, a strategy I followed for the next 2 drafts, as well. I was high on him. Even though he was young and behind a lot of shortstops in Cleveland (and likely to move positions, something that has since happened), everything I heard was that his bat would carry him to the majors. Except... he hasn't found his bat yet. Traded him for something before his value plummeted too far.
2013 - Julio Urias - Home Run! I hope. Picking first, I knew I wanted a pitcher with high upside. Urias had risk, no doubt, which caused me some concern. He was crazy young and had a crazy eye. Who knew how he would develop, and who knew if that eye would bother him as he got older. So far, so good, though, as he's on every "expert's" short list of top prospects. We'll see.
2014 - Rafael Devers - Double! I hope. Picking first again. After doing so well with the Urias pick, I decided to take another international player. There weren't any pitchers that I found that stuck out, so I took the guy who many said had the highest ceiling bat. By this time, it was becoming apparent that Paulino likely wasn't going to pan out, so his journey did cause me some concern, but the ceiling with this one was too high. Now, between him, Seager, and McMahon, I should have third base covered in the future.
2015 - Silvino Bracho - Went away from the teenage international prospect strategy, though I looked hard. Picking 7th, the guys who were available carried too much risk to take a chance on. I'm keeping an eye on them (none have been taken as of yet) and may pounce on one in the summer draft if they have good starts to the season. Anyway, since I knew I was going to target a closer in the off-season, may as well get one whose ZiPS were already out and would only cost me $500K. Hopefully I'll be able to use him as a late-inning guy for a few years.
So I think that overall my drafting strategy has improved since my Wilkin Ramirez bust of a pick. If Devers pans out and Bracho can keep it up (or I can trade them before their value drops too much), then I'll be happy with the overall quality of my winter drafts.
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Post by Texas GM on Jan 15, 2016 13:11:51 GMT -5
2010 - Daniel Descalso - Meh. Picking 27th, there wasn't a whole lot I could do. I went into the off-season really only needing a 2nd baseman, and Descalso had just had decent ZiPS put out. So I drafted him with plans of him being a cheap second baseman for me for a few years. Didn't quite work out that way. Kept him for 2 mostly unspectacular seasons before trading him for something, though his 2011 wasn't bad (.274/.323/.418 with 9 HR's in 347 AB's) That Descalso trade was with me. You put Descalso on Revocable Waivers in 2012 and I did the same with Doug Slaten. They both cleared and we made the swap. I still have Descalso as a 5th year UTIL depth guy, since he qualifies at every infield position and can fill in anywhere there's an injury. This is likely the end of the road for him on my team, but Slaten was out of baseball after 2012.
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Post by LA Angels GM on Jan 15, 2016 13:15:33 GMT -5
2010 - Daniel Descalso - Meh. Picking 27th, there wasn't a whole lot I could do. I went into the off-season really only needing a 2nd baseman, and Descalso had just had decent ZiPS put out. So I drafted him with plans of him being a cheap second baseman for me for a few years. Didn't quite work out that way. Kept him for 2 mostly unspectacular seasons before trading him for something, though his 2011 wasn't bad (.274/.323/.418 with 9 HR's in 347 AB's) That Descalso trade was with me. You put Descalso on Revocable Waivers in 2012 and I did the same with Doug Slaten. They both cleared and we made the swap. I still have Descalso as a 5th year UTIL depth guy, since he qualifies at every infield position and can fill in anywhere there's an injury. This is likely the end of the road for him on my team, but Slaten was out of baseball after 2012. So what you're saying is... I lost that trade.
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Post by Texas GM on Jan 15, 2016 13:24:09 GMT -5
That Descalso trade was with me. You put Descalso on Revocable Waivers in 2012 and I did the same with Doug Slaten. They both cleared and we made the swap. I still have Descalso as a 5th year UTIL depth guy, since he qualifies at every infield position and can fill in anywhere there's an injury. This is likely the end of the road for him on my team, but Slaten was out of baseball after 2012. So what you're saying is... I lost that trade. It's not like Descalso has gotten much playing time. I even saved a year on his arby clock. But, as things go, yeah, Douggy didn't hold up your end of the deal.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 15, 2016 13:48:16 GMT -5
So what you're saying is... I lost that trade. I don't know about that. One of you is on the hook for $2.2MM to a guy who will pull in an projection in the (low) 70's and one of you is free and clear of any obligation from the trade. I guess it depends on your POV
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Post by Cubbies on Jan 15, 2016 14:35:57 GMT -5
This looks like fun, and I am totally procrastinating at work when I should be working my tail off preparing for an audit next week:
2009 - Danny Espinosa (SS/2B) - I kept him around for a few years and he played well for me, but I shipped him to San Diego along with Matt Garza (I think that was the deal, and I don't recall what I got back) in the middle of the 2014 season. Dodgers got to him before I could last offseason when I wanted to bring him back. He has power, but a low batting average due to his high strikeouts and just lack of a good batting average lol. Plays plus defense though and hits homers. Not a bad first selection. I really thought he and Zack Cozart were going to be my middle infield for over half a decade.
2010 - Matt Packer (SP) - Swing and a miss! This guy came close to leading the minors in ERA in 2010. Good K and BB numbers. I thought he could be a solid #3 for awhile. His ERA and K numbers regressed in 2011, and he missed most of 2012 with random injuries. 2013 saw him pitch over 150 innings of average production in AA, but at 25 years old, it wasn't looking good. He was released in early 2014 and I don't know if he has been pitching Indy ball or injured, but he is unaffiliated. I released him in 2013 if I remember correctly.
2011 - Chris Beck (SP) - Between Beck's sophomore and junior seasons of college, he was getting hyped as a possible Top 10 pick for the 2012 MLB Draft. I figured I'd try my hand at picking an underclassman because it had been working well for a few other teams. Well, Beck had a mediocre junior year and fell to the middle of the second round where the ChiSox nabbed him. He's been unspectacularly average since signing, but did make a start last year in the majors. Also pitched a little for my Cubbies when I had some injuries and didn't want to use up a year for any of my good players lol. Probably a backend starter or long reliever long term. Not awful, but not what I was hoping for.
2012 - Trayce Thompson (CF) - I fell in love with his tools and the kid had a great 2012 season. 2013 and 2014 saw him repeating AA, where his K rate kept him from having a decent batting average and OBP. In 2015 he was promoted to AAA anyways and was doing well. Got a surprise call to the majors and blew up. Unfortunately I traded him in an gentleman's agreement to Baltimore just weeks before his promotion, so I had to send him there this offseason. Underwhelming ZIPS anyways, but I think the brother of Klay Thompson is finally coming into his own. Still has a bright future as an every day regular with good power and average defense in CF.
2013 - Bradley Zimmer (CF) - I tried the underclassman approach again in 2013, and I think I did better than two years before, but time will tell. Zimmer is right now the #1 ranked Indian prospect according to BA. He has above average power, speed, and defense. All around average-to-plus tools. Nothing not to like here. He's looking even better than I expected and showing more power and better defense.
2014 - Ketel Marte (SS) - I liked Marte as a SS with a chance to stay at the position (scouting reports list him as having the tools to stick at the position, if he just works out some kinks) with good speed and the ability to use that speed to get on base. He had always been young for the league he was playing in and always put up average or above average Rc+ numbers. Mostly BA driven, but that's fine for a few years. Hoping he is my SS this coming season after holding his own in the majors last year in about 250 PA. I like him as a top of the order hitter.
I have found that the more I research players and prospects, the luckier I get when drafting. I have stopped stopping when it comes to tracking young players, and now it's a yearlong thing for me. I do research more in the early summer of course, but I'm always trying to find new players to throw on my list.
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Post by Elephanti! on Jan 15, 2016 15:48:09 GMT -5
2009.08: Chris Withrow 2010.03: Gary Sanchez 2011.11: Jose Campos 2012.13: Slade Heathcott 2013.24: Amed Rosario 2014.30: Bobby Bradley
Well, I draft for upside, so there are hits and misses here. Heathcott is no longer in my system; I don't remember what I traded him for, but I'm glad that I recouped value. Campos is the biggest bust. Withrow never emerged as the starter I hoped for but is a reasonable reliever. Sanchez is progressing slowly and steadily; if his defense is good enough to stick at catcher, he should be fine. Rosario and Bradley are both looking good so far.
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