2022 Preseason Projections

raysgm
Pro

DJ Kitty - The Face of the Rays

Posts: 1,865

2022 Preseason Projections Jun 14, 2022 19:07:09 GMT -5 Cubbies, Whitesox, and 1 more like this

Quote

Post by raysgm on Jun 14, 2022 19:07:09 GMT -5

I made one of these last year:

nsbl2012.boards.net/thread/1957/2021-preseason-projections

And the year before:

nsbl2012.boards.net/thread/1746/2020-preseason-projections

The same disclaimer from years past applies here:

With the release of the initial DMB projections, I was able to run an initial season projection. This is based on the google sheets roster, and not the usual method of the rosters page on the website, so spelling errors may cause some players to be missed. I tried to clean up as many of these as possible to match DMB, but there will likely be misses.

Advanced Standings

EDIT: I just remembered that we moved to the triple Wild Card setup this year. I haven't codified that into the playoff prediction script and forgot until I had done most of this write-up, so some of the %s will be off. Most of my thoughts remain the same, but teams on the fringe of the Wild Card should have slightly better odds across the board.

My thoughts:
Let's start with the AL Central (why? Because nobody ever starts in the central, and the AL comes before NL alphabetically). In what's becoming a yearly theme, the White Sox and the Royals look locked and loaded to gun for the division and potentially the World Series. The model prefers the White Sox by a little over a win. They boast the stronger rotation (best in the AL) and lineup, while the Royals have a far superior pen. Will that be enough to win those tight games and swing the division to Kansas City? Minnesota and Cleveland both need to hit their far right tail outcomes to make the playoffs, while Detroit is the embodiment of the Dumb and Dumber "So You're Saying There's a Chance" line, with a 0.1% chance of making the playoffs.

Moving over the NL Central, we see resident scoundrel Jim's Pittsburgh Pirates back with a loaded roster and the league's best World Series odds (9.8%) and second best roster strength (.561 projected winning percentage)on the back of the strongest rotation in the league. He will have a much harder time repeating his 20 game division win from last year though, as Cincinnati has a strong team with the best odds to make the Wild Card game in the league. Both Chicago and Milwaukee also appear to be above average teams, and St. Louis is easily the best 5 seed in the league. This division should be fun.

In the AL East, the Rays are the strongest projected team in the league (.571 projected winning percentage), but Baltimore (.550) and Toronto (.546) should make this a tightly contested battle. All 3 teams are in the top-7 projections this year (Tampa 1, Baltimore 3, Toronto 7), and each have over a 10% chance to make it to the World Series. Tampa and Baltimore have the 2 best lineups in the league, but middle of the pack rotations, while Toronto has a top-5 rotation, top-2 bullpen, and top-10 lineup. Boston and the Yankees bring up the rear in the division, without a lot of playoff equity, made more difficult by the big 3 at the top of the division.

The NL East Braves have the best odds at taking home a division crown (despite only the 9th best overall projection in the league), with a projected 6.5 win difference between them and the second place Mets, who should scrap with Miami to finish above .500 and potentially push into playoff contention. Miami is a team that could be scary in the later months, as they have the 2nd best projection rotation in the league behind only Pittsburgh. The Nationals are the early clubhouse favorites to finish with the worst record in the league.

The AL West features the tightest projected race at the top of the division, with the Rangers and Mariners separated by 0.2 projected wins. Texas has the better arms, while Seattle has the better offense. Oakland is projected to finish right around .500, while Houston and the Angels are hoping to catch the right side of some variance to challenge the top of the division, as neither team looks poor enough to consider tanking.

In the National League, the Diamondbacks look poised to re-take the division, projecting roughly 5 game strong than the 2nd place Giants and 3rd place Rockies. It's not a good time to be a LHP in the NL West though, as each of the top 3 teams, as well as Los Angeles each boast a much stronger offense against lefties than righties compared to the rest of the league. San Diego, a long time favorite of this model, has fallen to 5th place, with a slim shot at the playoffs.

Overall here are the top/bottom of each component across the league:
Starting Pitching:
1. Pittsburgh Pirates
2. Miami Marlins
3. Cincinnati Reds
.
.
28. Boston Red Sox
29. New York Yankees
30. Detroit Tigers

Relief Pitching:
1. Arizona Diamondbacks
2. Toronto Blue Jays
3. St. Louis Cardinals
.
.
28. Detroit Tigers
29. Cleveland Guardians
30. Boston Red Sox

Lineup:
1. Tampa Bay Rays
2. Baltimore Orioles
3. Atlanta Braves
.
.
28. Los Angeles Dodgers
29. Miami Marlins
30. Washington Nationals

Career (15 yrs): 1365-1065 (+1511 RD|5x WC|3x Div|3x AL|0x WS)
Playoffs: 34-28 (+45)

87-75 (2nd|+117|WC2|Lost DS)
88-74 (3rd|+66)
102-60 (1st|+227|Lost DS)
99-63 (2nd|+194|WC1|Lost WC)
90-72 (2nd|+151|WC1|Lost WS)
107-55 (1st|+268|Lost WS)
115-47 (1st|+366|Lost WS)
86-76 (2nd|+70)
101-61 (2nd|+199|WC1|Lost WC)
89-73 (3rd|+102)
97-65 (2nd|+162|WC1|Lost WC)
86-76 (3rd|+51)
71-91 (5th|-134)
72-90 (5th|-69)
75-87 (4th|-65)

Pirates GM All Star LAME! Posts: 2,580	2022 Preseason Projections Jun 15, 2022 7:36:21 GMT -5 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Pirates GM on Jun 15, 2022 7:36:21 GMT -5 Dang. All of this sabermetric research tells me that the 2022 Pirates and their Rotation of Justice 7.0 are going to be Sexy AF. Thanks Connordog, JIm
	2019 was a broth to remember...

BrewCrewGuru Pro THE RUINER Winning at life, not at baseball. Posts: 1,679	2022 Preseason Projections Jun 15, 2022 17:52:35 GMT -5 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by BrewCrewGuru on Jun 15, 2022 17:52:35 GMT -5 I love it when your idiot computer underestimates me.
	Sean THE RUINER (1382-1372) NSBL Founding Member You can reach me at quixquazquan@gmail.com "If you can not answer a man's arguement, all is not lost. You can still call him vile names" - Elbert Hubbard

Pirates GM All Star LAME! Posts: 2,580	2022 Preseason Projections Jun 15, 2022 18:16:26 GMT -5 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Pirates GM on Jun 15, 2022 18:16:26 GMT -5 Connor's projection system is so fine-tuned that he's been able to factor in your mid-June tear down and rebuild.
	2019 was a broth to remember...

Cubbies Administrator Consigliere Posts: 4,357	2022 Preseason Projections Jun 15, 2022 20:16:43 GMT -5 via mobile Pirates GM likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Cubbies on Jun 15, 2022 20:16:43 GMT -5 Jun 15, 2022 17:52:35 GMT -5 BrewCrewGuru said: I love it when your idiot computer underestimates me. I think it's pegged you pretty well for 3 year running.
	www.TheNSBL.com/NSBL.zip

raysgm
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DJ Kitty - The Face of the Rays

Posts: 1,865

2022 Preseason Projections Jun 15, 2022 23:37:43 GMT -5 Pirates GM likes this

Quote

Post by raysgm on Jun 15, 2022 23:37:43 GMT -5

Jun 15, 2022 20:16:43 GMT -5 Cubbies said:

Jun 15, 2022 17:52:35 GMT -5 BrewCrewGuru said:

I love it when your idiot computer underestimates me.

I think it's pegged you pretty well for 3 year running.

In the 4 previous years for Milwaukee, I've been high by 5 games, low by 5 games, high by 7 games, and low by 5 games


year	tm	div	preseason	result	diff	pre_div	win_div
2022	Ari	NL W	88.1-73.9 	------	-----	61.2%	---
2021	Ari	NL W	88.4-73.6 	96-66 	7.6  	38.3%	y
2020	Ari	NL W	93.2-68.8 	93-69 	-0.2 	71.4%	y
2019	Ari	NL W	89.4-72.6 	78-84 	-11.4	13.4%	
2018	Ari	NL W	90.1-71.9 	95-67 	4.9  	9.8% 	
2022	Atl	NL E	88.0-74.0 	------	-----	65.5%	---
2021	Atl	NL E	80.5-81.5 	87-75 	6.5  	7.1% 	
2020	Atl	NL E	93.9-68.1 	90-72 	-3.9 	47.7%	
2019	Atl	NL E	88.6-73.4 	102-60	13.4 	17.2%	y
2018	Atl	NL E	62.6-99.4 	52-110	-10.6	0.6% 	
2022	Bal	AL E	89.1-72.9 	------	-----	26.6%	---
2021	Bal	AL E	85.7-76.3 	87-75 	1.3  	14.3%	
2020	Bal	AL E	86.9-75.1 	103-59	16.1 	16.9%	y
2019	Bal	AL E	81.9-80.1 	92-70 	10.1 	2.1% 	y
2018	Bal	AL E	95.6-66.4 	106-56	10.4 	18.2%	
2022	Bos	AL E	68.2-93.8 	------	-----	0.0% 	---
2021	Bos	AL E	71.8-90.2 	63-99 	-8.8 	0.1% 	
2020	Bos	AL E	66.7-95.3 	59-103	-7.7 	0.0% 	
2019	Bos	AL E	82.0-80.0 	75-87 	-7.0 	2.3% 	
2018	Bos	AL E	84.0-78.0 	76-86 	-8.0 	1.9% 	
2022	ChA	AL C	88.8-73.2 	------	-----	53.0%	---
2021	ChA	AL C	92.4-69.6 	94-68 	1.6  	79.6%	y
2020	ChA	AL C	93.2-68.8 	96-66 	2.8  	71.3%	
2019	ChA	AL C	89.5-72.5 	106-56	16.5 	70.6%	y
2018	ChA	AL C	90.4-71.6 	94-68 	3.6  	65.6%	y
2022	ChN	NL C	83.0-79.0 	------	-----	8.0% 	---
2021	ChN	NL C	73.0-89.0 	52-110	-21.0	0.7% 	
2020	ChN	NL C	82.5-79.5 	91-71 	8.5  	15.7%	y
2019	ChN	NL C	70.0-92.0 	51-111	-19.0	0.3% 	
2018	ChN	NL C	86.0-76.0 	94-68 	8.0  	17.5%	y
2022	Cin	NL C	86.9-75.1 	------	-----	24.5%	---
2021	Cin	NL C	80.2-81.8 	68-94 	-12.2	9.4% 	
2020	Cin	NL C	77.1-84.9 	69-93 	-8.1 	2.8% 	
2019	Cin	NL C	78.1-83.9 	80-82 	1.9  	6.2% 	
2018	Cin	NL C	59.7-102.3	67-95 	7.3  	0.0% 	
2022	Cle	AL C	76.3-85.7 	------	-----	1.9% 	---
2021	Cle	AL C	75.6-86.4 	80-82 	4.4  	0.8% 	
2020	Cle	AL C	59.9-102.1	51-111	-8.9 	0.0% 	
2019	Cle	AL C	81.8-80.2 	85-77 	3.2  	13.7%	
2018	Cle	AL C	80.7-81.3 	86-77 	5.3  	15.0%	
2022	Col	NL W	81.7-80.3 	------	-----	15.5%	---
2021	Col	NL W	88.1-73.9 	94-68 	5.9  	35.8%	
2020	Col	NL W	87.1-74.9 	85-77 	-2.1 	20.8%	
2019	Col	NL W	97.8-64.2 	99-63 	1.2  	72.1%	
2018	Col	NL W	102.2-59.8	107-55	4.8  	59.5%	y
2022	Det	AL C	69.8-92.2 	------	-----	0.1% 	---
2021	Det	AL C	81.3-80.7 	69-93 	-12.3	6.6% 	
2020	Det	AL C	81.9-80.1 	90-72 	8.1  	6.7% 	
2019	Det	AL C	80.6-81.4 	75-87 	-5.6 	9.7% 	
2018	Det	AL C	78.5-83.5 	79-83 	0.5  	9.7% 	
2022	Hou	AL W	77.9-84.1 	------	-----	2.0% 	---
2021	Hou	AL W	71.3-90.7 	63-99 	-8.3 	1.1% 	
2020	Hou	AL W	71.4-90.6 	65-97 	-6.4 	0.7% 	
2019	Hou	AL W	69.0-93.0 	60-102	-9.0 	0.0% 	
2018	Hou	AL W	72.5-89.5 	67-95 	-5.5 	0.5% 	
2022	KC	AL C	87.5-74.5 	------	-----	41.9%	---
2021	KC	AL C	83.4-78.6 	86-76 	2.6  	12.0%	
2020	KC	AL C	86.4-75.6 	101-61	14.6 	21.0%	y
2019	KC	AL C	79.0-83.0 	81-81 	2.0  	6.0% 	
2018	KC	AL C	78.0-84.0 	72-90 	-6.0 	8.9% 	
2022	LAA	AL W	75.7-86.3 	------	-----	0.8% 	---
2021	LAA	AL W	79.3-82.7 	86-76 	6.7  	18.2%	
2020	LAA	AL W	78.6-83.4 	93-69 	14.4 	10.2%	
2019	LAA	AL W	77.2-84.8 	78-84 	0.8  	1.7% 	
2018	LAA	AL W	77.0-85.0 	82-80 	5.0  	1.8% 	
2022	LAN	NL W	72.9-89.1 	------	-----	0.8% 	---
2021	LAN	NL W	77.5-84.5 	77-85 	-0.5 	1.3% 	
2020	LAN	NL W	82.3-79.7 	85-77 	2.7  	5.2% 	
2019	LAN	NL W	79.5-82.5 	90-72 	10.5 	0.4% 	
2018	LAN	NL W	82.4-79.6 	70-92 	-12.4	1.9% 	
2022	Mia	NL E	80.8-81.2 	------	-----	14.1%	---
2021	Mia	NL E	91.0-71.0 	92-70 	1.0  	75.9%	y
2020	Mia	NL E	90.5-71.5 	92-70 	1.5  	24.2%	
2019	Mia	NL E	97.4-64.6 	96-66 	-1.4 	81.2%	
2018	Mia	NL E	74.4-87.7 	77-85 	2.7  	8.1% 	
2022	Mil	NL C	81.5-80.5 	------	-----	4.8% 	---
2021	Mil	NL C	72.6-89.4 	78-84 	5.4  	0.6% 	
2020	Mil	NL C	78.8-83.2 	72-90 	-6.8 	5.1% 	
2019	Mil	NL C	70.0-92.0 	75-87 	5.0  	0.3% 	
2018	Mil	NL C	75.1-86.9 	70-92 	-5.1 	2.2% 	
2022	Min	AL C	77.8-84.2 	------	-----	3.2% 	---
2021	Min	AL C	76.0-86.0 	75-87 	-1.0 	1.0% 	
2020	Min	AL C	76.3-85.7 	62-100	-14.3	1.0% 	
2019	Min	AL C	66.0-96.0 	72-90 	6.0  	0.0% 	
2018	Min	AL C	68.4-93.6 	46-116	-22.4	0.9% 	
2022	NYA	AL E	70.5-91.5 	------	-----	0.0% 	---
2021	NYA	AL E	80.0-82.0 	74-88 	-6.0 	2.5% 	
2020	NYA	AL E	75.8-86.2 	71-91 	-4.8 	0.6% 	
2019	NYA	AL E	83.5-78.5 	74-88 	-9.5 	3.8% 	
2018	NYA	AL E	70.5-91.5 	72-90 	1.5  	0.0% 	
2022	NYN	NL E	81.4-80.6 	------	-----	16.3%	---
2021	NYN	NL E	82.9-79.1 	73-89 	-9.9 	14.1%	
2020	NYN	NL E	91.1-70.9 	93-69 	1.9  	27.7%	y
2019	NYN	NL E	78.3-83.7 	54-108	-24.3	0.6% 	
2018	NYN	NL E	93.1-68.9 	103-59	9.9  	88.8%	y
2022	Oak	AL W	81.3-80.7 	------	-----	6.7% 	---
2021	Oak	AL W	78.3-83.7 	66-96 	-12.3	13.9%	
2020	Oak	AL W	83.2-78.8 	93-69 	9.8  	34.6%	
2019	Oak	AL W	86.5-75.5 	87-75 	0.5  	25.3%	
2018	Oak	AL W	92.8-69.2 	91-71 	-1.8 	38.5%	y
2022	Phi	NL E	76.8-85.2 	------	-----	4.2% 	---
2021	Phi	NL E	77.7-84.3 	78-84 	0.3  	2.8% 	
2020	Phi	NL E	77.6-84.4 	66-96 	-11.6	0.4% 	
2019	Phi	NL E	78.5-83.6 	85-77 	6.6  	0.7% 	
2018	Phi	NL E	65.6-96.4 	79-83 	13.4 	1.2% 	
2022	Pit	NL C	90.9-71.1 	------	-----	60.5%	---
2021	Pit	NL C	90.5-71.5 	103-59	12.5 	81.3%	y
2020	Pit	NL C	89.6-72.4 	85-77 	-4.6 	74.7%	
2019	Pit	NL C	92.6-69.4 	86-76 	-6.6 	92.3%	y
2018	Pit	NL C	98.7-63.3 	90-72 	-8.7 	78.7%	
2022	SD	NL W	69.8-92.2 	------	-----	0.2% 	---
2021	SD	NL W	86.4-75.6 	95-67 	8.6  	23.9%	
2020	SD	NL W	79.9-82.1 	86-76 	6.1  	2.2% 	
2019	SD	NL W	89.6-72.4 	100-62	10.4 	14.0%	y
2018	SD	NL W	96.6-65.4 	103-59	6.4  	28.8%	
2022	Sea	AL W	88.5-73.5 	------	-----	44.4%	---
2021	Sea	AL W	81.8-80.2 	80-82 	-1.8 	35.3%	
2020	Sea	AL W	75.7-86.3 	69-93 	-6.7 	3.8% 	
2019	Sea	AL W	78.2-83.8 	77-85 	-1.2 	2.4% 	
2018	Sea	AL W	84.2-77.8 	85-78 	0.8  	9.0% 	
2022	SF	NL W	83.2-78.8 	------	-----	22.3%	---
2021	SF	NL W	76.0-86.0 	68-94 	-8.0 	0.7% 	
2020	SF	NL W	75.1-86.9 	70-92 	-5.1 	0.3% 	
2019	SF	NL W	75.3-86.7 	73-89 	-2.3 	0.1% 	
2018	SF	NL W	68.8-93.2 	69-93 	0.2  	0.0% 	
2022	StL	NL C	79.4-82.6 	------	-----	2.2% 	---
2021	StL	NL C	79.7-82.3 	83-79 	3.3  	7.9% 	
2020	StL	NL C	75.8-86.2 	84-78 	8.2  	1.7% 	
2019	StL	NL C	72.1-89.9 	74-88 	1.9  	0.8% 	
2018	StL	NL C	73.8-88.2 	78-84 	4.2  	1.6% 	
2022	Tam	AL E	92.5-69.5 	------	-----	50.1%	---
2021	Tam	AL E	94.3-67.7 	102-60	7.7  	78.7%	y
2020	Tam	AL E	96.5-65.5 	99-63 	2.5  	81.9%	
2019	Tam	AL E	98.5-63.5 	90-72 	-8.5 	91.6%	
2018	Tam	AL E	107.3-54.7	107-55	-0.3 	76.6%	y
2022	Tex	AL W	88.7-73.3 	------	-----	46.1%	---
2021	Tex	AL W	81.3-80.7 	99-63 	17.7 	31.5%	y
2020	Tex	AL W	85.0-77.0 	95-67 	10.0 	50.7%	y
2019	Tex	AL W	92.1-69.9 	92-70 	-0.1 	70.6%	y
2018	Tex	AL W	94.8-67.2 	84-78 	-10.8	50.2%	
2022	Tor	AL E	88.5-73.5 	------	-----	23.3%	---
2021	Tor	AL E	81.7-80.3 	93-69 	11.3 	4.5% 	
2020	Tor	AL E	76.2-85.8 	70-92 	-6.2 	0.7% 	
2019	Tor	AL E	77.0-85.0 	71-91 	-6.0 	0.3% 	
2018	Tor	AL E	86.6-75.4 	59-103	-27.6	3.3% 	
2022	Was	NL E	64.4-97.6 	------	-----	0.0% 	---
2021	Was	NL E	71.1-90.9 	69-93 	-2.1 	0.2% 	
2020	Was	NL E	61.7-100.3	52-110	-9.7 	0.0% 	
2019	Was	NL E	76.7-85.3 	72-90 	-4.7 	0.3% 	
2018	Was	NL E	65.9-96.1 	71-91 	5.1  	1.3%

Last Edit: Jun 15, 2022 23:39:18 GMT -5 by raysgm

Career (15 yrs): 1365-1065 (+1511 RD|5x WC|3x Div|3x AL|0x WS)
Playoffs: 34-28 (+45)

87-75 (2nd|+117|WC2|Lost DS)
88-74 (3rd|+66)
102-60 (1st|+227|Lost DS)
99-63 (2nd|+194|WC1|Lost WC)
90-72 (2nd|+151|WC1|Lost WS)
107-55 (1st|+268|Lost WS)
115-47 (1st|+366|Lost WS)
86-76 (2nd|+70)
101-61 (2nd|+199|WC1|Lost WC)
89-73 (3rd|+102)
97-65 (2nd|+162|WC1|Lost WC)
86-76 (3rd|+51)
71-91 (5th|-134)
72-90 (5th|-69)
75-87 (4th|-65)

raysgm
Pro

DJ Kitty - The Face of the Rays

Posts: 1,865

2022 Preseason Projections Jun 15, 2022 23:58:21 GMT -5 Pirates GM likes this

Quote

Post by raysgm on Jun 15, 2022 23:58:21 GMT -5

And the team-by-team breakdown:


year_span	tm	div	avg_preseaon	avg_result	avg_diff	avg_div	proj_divs	divs_won	details
2018 to 2021	Ari	NL W	90.3-71.7 	90.5-71.5 	0.2     	33.2%	1.33      	2       	2018 - 9.8% | 2019 - 13.4% | 2020 - 71.4% (won div) | 2021 - 38.3% (won div)
2018 to 2021	Atl	NL E	81.4-80.6 	82.8-79.3 	1.3     	18.1%	0.73      	1       	2018 - 0.6% | 2019 - 17.2% (won div) | 2020 - 47.7% | 2021 - 7.1%
2018 to 2021	Bal	AL E	87.5-74.5 	97.0-65.0 	9.5     	12.9%	0.51      	2       	2018 - 18.2% | 2019 - 2.1% (won div) | 2020 - 16.9% (won div) | 2021 - 14.3%
2018 to 2021	Bos	AL E	76.1-85.9 	68.3-93.8 	-7.9    	1.0% 	0.04      	0       	2018 - 1.9% | 2019 - 2.3% | 2020 - 0.0% | 2021 - 0.1%
2018 to 2021	ChA	AL C	91.4-70.6 	97.5-64.5 	6.1     	71.8%	2.87      	3       	2018 - 65.6% (won div) | 2019 - 70.6% (won div) | 2020 - 71.3% | 2021 - 79.6% (won div)
2018 to 2021	ChN	NL C	77.9-84.1 	72.0-90.0 	-5.9    	8.6% 	0.34      	2       	2018 - 17.5% (won div) | 2019 - 0.3% | 2020 - 15.7% (won div) | 2021 - 0.7%
2018 to 2021	Cin	NL C	73.8-88.2 	71.0-91.0 	-2.8    	4.6% 	0.18      	0       	2018 - 0.0% | 2019 - 6.2% | 2020 - 2.8% | 2021 - 9.4%
2018 to 2021	Cle	AL C	74.5-87.5 	75.5-86.8 	1.0     	7.4% 	0.29      	0       	2018 - 15.0% | 2019 - 13.7% | 2020 - 0.0% | 2021 - 0.8%
2018 to 2021	Col	NL W	93.8-68.2 	96.3-65.8 	2.5     	47.0%	1.88      	1       	2018 - 59.5% (won div) | 2019 - 72.1% | 2020 - 20.8% | 2021 - 35.8%
2018 to 2021	Det	AL C	80.6-81.4 	78.3-83.8 	-2.3    	8.2% 	0.33      	0       	2018 - 9.7% | 2019 - 9.7% | 2020 - 6.7% | 2021 - 6.6%
2018 to 2021	Hou	AL W	71.1-90.9 	63.8-98.3 	-7.3    	0.6% 	0.02      	0       	2018 - 0.5% | 2019 - 0.0% | 2020 - 0.7% | 2021 - 1.1%
2018 to 2021	KC	AL C	81.7-80.3 	85.0-77.0 	3.3     	12.0%	0.48      	1       	2018 - 8.9% | 2019 - 6.0% | 2020 - 21.0% (won div) | 2021 - 12.0%
2018 to 2021	LAA	AL W	78.0-84.0 	84.8-77.3 	6.7     	8.0% 	0.32      	0       	2018 - 1.8% | 2019 - 1.7% | 2020 - 10.2% | 2021 - 18.2%
2018 to 2021	LAN	NL W	80.4-81.6 	80.5-81.5 	0.1     	2.2% 	0.09      	0       	2018 - 1.9% | 2019 - 0.4% | 2020 - 5.2% | 2021 - 1.3%
2018 to 2021	Mia	NL E	88.3-73.7 	89.3-72.8 	0.9     	47.3%	1.89      	1       	2018 - 8.1% | 2019 - 81.2% | 2020 - 24.2% | 2021 - 75.9% (won div)
2018 to 2021	Mil	NL C	74.1-87.9 	73.8-88.3 	-0.4    	2.1% 	0.08      	0       	2018 - 2.2% | 2019 - 0.3% | 2020 - 5.1% | 2021 - 0.6%
2018 to 2021	Min	AL C	71.7-90.3 	63.8-98.3 	-7.9    	0.7% 	0.03      	0       	2018 - 0.9% | 2019 - 0.0% | 2020 - 1.0% | 2021 - 1.0%
2018 to 2021	NYA	AL E	77.4-84.6 	72.8-89.3 	-4.7    	1.7% 	0.07      	0       	2018 - 0.0% | 2019 - 3.8% | 2020 - 0.6% | 2021 - 2.5%
2018 to 2021	NYN	NL E	86.4-75.6 	80.8-81.3 	-5.6    	32.8%	1.31      	2       	2018 - 88.8% (won div) | 2019 - 0.6% | 2020 - 27.7% (won div) | 2021 - 14.1%
2018 to 2021	Oak	AL W	85.2-76.8 	84.3-77.8 	-1.0    	28.1%	1.12      	1       	2018 - 38.5% (won div) | 2019 - 25.3% | 2020 - 34.6% | 2021 - 13.9%
2018 to 2021	Phi	NL E	74.8-87.2 	77.0-85.0 	2.2     	1.3% 	0.05      	0       	2018 - 1.2% | 2019 - 0.7% | 2020 - 0.4% | 2021 - 2.8%
2018 to 2021	Pit	NL C	92.9-69.1 	91.0-71.0 	-1.9    	81.8%	3.27      	2       	2018 - 78.7% | 2019 - 92.3% (won div) | 2020 - 74.7% | 2021 - 81.3% (won div)
2018 to 2021	SD	NL W	88.1-73.9 	96.0-66.0 	7.9     	17.2%	0.69      	1       	2018 - 28.8% | 2019 - 14.0% (won div) | 2020 - 2.2% | 2021 - 23.9%
2018 to 2021	Sea	AL W	80.0-82.0 	77.8-84.5 	-2.2    	12.6%	0.51      	0       	2018 - 9.0% | 2019 - 2.4% | 2020 - 3.8% | 2021 - 35.3%
2018 to 2021	SF	NL W	73.8-88.2 	70.0-92.0 	-3.8    	0.3% 	0.01      	0       	2018 - 0.0% | 2019 - 0.1% | 2020 - 0.3% | 2021 - 0.7%
2018 to 2021	StL	NL C	75.3-86.7 	79.8-82.3 	4.4     	3.0% 	0.12      	0       	2018 - 1.6% | 2019 - 0.8% | 2020 - 1.7% | 2021 - 7.9%
2018 to 2021	Tam	AL E	99.2-62.8 	99.5-62.5 	0.3     	82.2%	3.29      	2       	2018 - 76.6% (won div) | 2019 - 91.6% | 2020 - 81.9% | 2021 - 78.7% (won div)
2018 to 2021	Tex	AL W	88.3-73.7 	92.5-69.5 	4.2     	50.7%	2.03      	3       	2018 - 50.2% | 2019 - 70.6% (won div) | 2020 - 50.7% (won div) | 2021 - 31.5% (won div)
2018 to 2021	Tor	AL E	80.4-81.6 	73.3-88.8 	-7.1    	2.2% 	0.09      	0       	2018 - 3.3% | 2019 - 0.3% | 2020 - 0.7% | 2021 - 4.5%
2018 to 2021	Was	NL E	68.9-93.1 	66.0-96.0 	-2.9    	0.5% 	0.02      	0       	2018 - 1.3% | 2019 - 0.3% | 2020 - 0.0% | 2021 - 0.2%

I have missed lowest on Baltimore, San Diego, the Angels, and the White Sox.

I have been highest on Minnesota, Boston, Houston, and Toronto.

Divisionally, the Cubs and Orioles have more than 1 division win over expected (Texas is close, with 3 actual wins vs 2.03 expected), while Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh should have both been likely to see an extra divisonal victory (3.29 and 3.27 expected divisional crowns, vs 2 actual victories).

And despite expecting to win 1.89 divisions and only winning 1, I've been great at projecting the Marlins. On average I've only been off by 1.6 games a year, with a standard deviation of 1.5 games. So let's get ready to watch them crush my projection this year!

Last Edit: Jun 16, 2022 0:08:45 GMT -5 by raysgm

Career (15 yrs): 1365-1065 (+1511 RD|5x WC|3x Div|3x AL|0x WS)
Playoffs: 34-28 (+45)

87-75 (2nd|+117|WC2|Lost DS)
88-74 (3rd|+66)
102-60 (1st|+227|Lost DS)
99-63 (2nd|+194|WC1|Lost WC)
90-72 (2nd|+151|WC1|Lost WS)
107-55 (1st|+268|Lost WS)
115-47 (1st|+366|Lost WS)
86-76 (2nd|+70)
101-61 (2nd|+199|WC1|Lost WC)
89-73 (3rd|+102)
97-65 (2nd|+162|WC1|Lost WC)
86-76 (3rd|+51)
71-91 (5th|-134)
72-90 (5th|-69)
75-87 (4th|-65)

Nationals AAA Posts: 508	2022 Preseason Projections Jun 16, 2022 0:21:39 GMT -5 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Nationals on Jun 16, 2022 0:21:39 GMT -5 2017 Nationals broke your computer, or maybe your theory at least. The rest has been dead balls. Nice work.
	Washington Nationals GM: Dave Taylor Email: dtaylorfd@gmail.com 2017: 92-70 - World Series Champions, NL East Champions 2018: 71-91 - 4th Place NL East 2019: 72-90 - 4th Place NL East 2020: 52-110 - 5th Place NL East 2021: 69-93 - 5th Place NL East 2022: 62-100 - 5th Place NL East 2023: 85-77 - 2nd Place NL East, Lost NLDS All-Time: 503-631 (.444)

BrewCrewGuru
Pro

THE RUINER

Winning at life, not at baseball.

Posts: 1,679

2022 Preseason Projections Jun 16, 2022 7:02:23 GMT -5 Cubbies likes this

Quote

Post by BrewCrewGuru on Jun 16, 2022 7:02:23 GMT -5

Jun 15, 2022 20:16:43 GMT -5 Cubbies said:

Jun 15, 2022 17:52:35 GMT -5 BrewCrewGuru said:

I love it when your idiot computer underestimates me.

I think it's pegged you pretty well for 3 year running.

The 2 years I under-performed his predictions I had to bail on the season, otherwise I consistently out-perform his predictions. Also, yer a jerk.

Sean

THE RUINER (1382-1372)
NSBL Founding Member

You can reach me at quixquazquan@gmail.com

"If you can not answer a man's arguement, all is not lost. You can still call him vile names" - Elbert Hubbard

Pirates GM All Star LAME! Posts: 2,580	2022 Preseason Projections Jun 16, 2022 13:12:30 GMT -5 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Pirates GM on Jun 16, 2022 13:12:30 GMT -5 The important thing to take from this thread is to never call out Connor ever. Seeing Sean de-pants and bent over his knee in front of the league is getting tough to watch. ...But I will.
	2019 was a broth to remember...

Pirates GM
All Star

LAME!

Posts: 2,580

2022 Preseason Projections Jun 16, 2022 13:23:28 GMT -5

Quote

Post by Pirates GM on Jun 16, 2022 13:23:28 GMT -5

2021 Pit NL C 90.5-71.5 103-59 12.5 81.3% y
2020 Pit NL C 89.6-72.4 85-77 -4.6 74.7%
2019 Pit NL C 92.6-69.4 86-76 -6.6 92.3% y
2018 Pit NL C 98.7-63.3 90-72 -8.7 78.7%

One of these regular season sims was completed on Hayes's computer. Three of them on Joe's computer.

If only I could recall which was which.

2019 was a broth to remember...

2022 Preseason Projections

Post by raysgm on Jun 14, 2022 19:07:09 GMT -5

Post by Pirates GM on Jun 15, 2022 7:36:21 GMT -5

Post by BrewCrewGuru on Jun 15, 2022 17:52:35 GMT -5

Post by Pirates GM on Jun 15, 2022 18:16:26 GMT -5

Post by Cubbies on Jun 15, 2022 20:16:43 GMT -5

Post by raysgm on Jun 15, 2022 23:37:43 GMT -5

Post by raysgm on Jun 15, 2022 23:58:21 GMT -5

Post by Nationals on Jun 16, 2022 0:21:39 GMT -5

Post by BrewCrewGuru on Jun 16, 2022 7:02:23 GMT -5

Post by Pirates GM on Jun 16, 2022 13:12:30 GMT -5

Post by Pirates GM on Jun 16, 2022 13:23:28 GMT -5

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