Post by raysgm on Apr 21, 2020 18:21:37 GMT -5
With the release of the initial DMB projections, I was able to run an initial season projection. This is based on the google sheets roster, and not the usual method of the rosters page on the website, so spelling errors may cause some players to be missed. I tried to clean up as many of these as possible to match DMB, but there will likely be misses.
Before I get to the projections, I also updated a few tables if anybody is interested:
And the link to the preseason projections:
My thoughts:
-4 divisions seem to have a clear front-runner (AL East with TB, NL Central with PIT, NL West with AZ, AL Central with CHW), but still, it's far more likely that one of these teams will NOT will the division (69% chance at least one of these teams doesn't win the division).
-The AL West is mostly a two team race between Texas and Oakland, but there's a 1/10 chance that LAA can come play spoiler.
-The NL East looks like a true 3 team race of quality teams, as MIA, NYM, and ATL all have a 90+ win projection and have 3 of the 6 highest projections leaguewide (no other division has more than 1 team with a 90+ projection).
-I essentially give 0 shot to BOS, WAS, and CLE, with both CLE and WAS being projected for 100+ losses.
WOOOOO!!! (fake) BASEBALL IS ALMOST BACK!!!
Before I get to the projections, I also updated a few tables if anybody is interested:
- Historical Free Agency (since 2013)
- Historical Drafts (since 2005)
- Historical Week-By-Week Rosters (since end of 2019)
- Current Rosters (I find it easier to search for players here than in excel/google sheets)
And the link to the preseason projections:
My thoughts:
-4 divisions seem to have a clear front-runner (AL East with TB, NL Central with PIT, NL West with AZ, AL Central with CHW), but still, it's far more likely that one of these teams will NOT will the division (69% chance at least one of these teams doesn't win the division).
-The AL West is mostly a two team race between Texas and Oakland, but there's a 1/10 chance that LAA can come play spoiler.
-The NL East looks like a true 3 team race of quality teams, as MIA, NYM, and ATL all have a 90+ win projection and have 3 of the 6 highest projections leaguewide (no other division has more than 1 team with a 90+ projection).
-I essentially give 0 shot to BOS, WAS, and CLE, with both CLE and WAS being projected for 100+ losses.
WOOOOO!!! (fake) BASEBALL IS ALMOST BACK!!!
