Post by raysgm on Apr 23, 2021 17:12:25 GMT -5
Same disclaimer from last year applies:
My thoughts:
-4 divisions seem to have a clear front-runner (NL East with MIA, NL Central with PIT, AL Central with CHW, AL East with TB), but still, it's far more likely than not (61%) that at least one of these teams will NOT will their division . Also remember last year we were in a similar situation with 4 clear top teams in 4 divisions (TB/PIT/CHW/AZ) and only Arizona ended up winning the division. Weird things happen in the sim sometimes.
-The NL West is a bloodbath. Arizona, Colorado, and San Diego all have a strong shot at winning the division. Despite being ranked lowest currently, San Diego might be my pick to take it home, as they have the most notable weak spots (the rotation drops straight off a cliff after the front 3, getting a dependable SP4 and SP5 would probably put SD as the divisional favorites).
-The AL West is...uh....open for the taking. Seattle is currently projected as the favorite, despite being projected to have a 0.505 winning percentage. I can't wait for a 78-84 division winner to get into the playoffs while 2 of TB/BAL/TOR/CHW/KC/DET (all projected to be equal or better than Seattle) don't even get a chance at the wild card game.
-Looking like the sellers this year will include BOS, WAS, MIL, SF, CHC, CLE, HOU, MIN, and LAD. All have a sub 2% chance of making the playoffs
With the release of the initial DMB projections, I was able to run an initial season projection. This is based on the google sheets roster, and not the usual method of the rosters page on the website, so spelling errors may cause some players to be missed. I tried to clean up as many of these as possible to match DMB, but there will likely be misses.
My thoughts:
-4 divisions seem to have a clear front-runner (NL East with MIA, NL Central with PIT, AL Central with CHW, AL East with TB), but still, it's far more likely than not (61%) that at least one of these teams will NOT will their division . Also remember last year we were in a similar situation with 4 clear top teams in 4 divisions (TB/PIT/CHW/AZ) and only Arizona ended up winning the division. Weird things happen in the sim sometimes.
-The NL West is a bloodbath. Arizona, Colorado, and San Diego all have a strong shot at winning the division. Despite being ranked lowest currently, San Diego might be my pick to take it home, as they have the most notable weak spots (the rotation drops straight off a cliff after the front 3, getting a dependable SP4 and SP5 would probably put SD as the divisional favorites).
-The AL West is...uh....open for the taking. Seattle is currently projected as the favorite, despite being projected to have a 0.505 winning percentage. I can't wait for a 78-84 division winner to get into the playoffs while 2 of TB/BAL/TOR/CHW/KC/DET (all projected to be equal or better than Seattle) don't even get a chance at the wild card game.
-Looking like the sellers this year will include BOS, WAS, MIL, SF, CHC, CLE, HOU, MIN, and LAD. All have a sub 2% chance of making the playoffs
