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Post by BrewCrewGuru on Feb 9, 2021 2:43:10 GMT -5
Once again, we are faced with the decision to keep talking trash on the same thread or to accept that we need to step our game up.
I have chosen the latter! In 2021, you will get the same sporadic attention and comments as in previous years, but there will be something different. You'll still get 2 spaces between my run-on sentences because zoomers aren't nearly powerful enough to influence me. I will not be making references to memes or tiktoks because I am too old to learn new tricks. The difference will be my acceptance of the immense suckitude my team will represent.
Who knows what effect that will have on my ability to judge and ridicule the rest of the league. I just felt we needed a new battlefield to find out.
Y'all suck.
Peace,
Sean aka The Ruiner aka Cristian Pache's Daddy
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Post by bluejaysgm on Feb 15, 2021 11:42:41 GMT -5
My pending trade from January prospects for picks has not been updated on the spreadsheet.
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Post by Cubbies on Feb 18, 2021 15:17:31 GMT -5
Coincidentally you two were owners I mentioned to Chuck the Canuck. I told him Tracy loves to trade three nickels to try to get a quarter, but Sean likes to trade his quarters for three nickels.
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Post by BrewCrewGuru on Feb 18, 2021 21:23:40 GMT -5
I'm still in the market for nickles, preferably wooden ones.
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Post by Pirates GM on Feb 21, 2021 17:37:03 GMT -5
Holy heck. Rare that I say this, but I think Shawn won that trade with the Nationals hands-down. Hosmer is a little overpriced, but not much. Both he and Myers are under contract control for the next 3 seasons, and he gave up very little to get them.
Well done sir!
JIm
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2021 6:46:49 GMT -5
you got a wax pack with Hosmer and Wil Myers?!?!? you must be gittier than a 12 year old Kansas City kid in 2011. both of them are more 2019 than you think. and shedding those salaries is the asset, not having them signed for 3 years.
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Post by Nationals on Feb 22, 2021 11:33:31 GMT -5
It was a good deal for both sides. I shed some salary and gained a project and a pick. He fills some holes easily and still has 30M in cp space for 1 or 2 players.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2021 12:12:33 GMT -5
its ok for 2021. they may start eating each others playing time in 22 -> Cronenworth showed he's worth playing, Tatis and Machado aren't sitting. Kim just signed 5 years. Grisham and Pham aren't sitting. Myers is really going to have to hit at a RF to be above replacement level.
I think Nats win this trade.
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Post by Pirates GM on Feb 22, 2021 20:41:05 GMT -5
Shawn wants the players.
Shawn gots the players.
NYY > WAS
JIm
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Post by raysgm on Feb 22, 2021 21:47:30 GMT -5
Okay, with the usual disclaimer, this is how I value each player in that trade:
Wil Myers (WAS --> NYY): +$27 MM Eric Hosmer (WAS --> NYY): -$22 MM Rece Hinds (NYY --> WAS): +$6 MM Pick 3.11 (NYY --> WAS): ?? (I don't have a way to value picks)
So I'd probably give a slight edge to WAS because I see Hosmer as a significant value loss....but that said, there is more upside from their end as well if Hosmer has a good year and is able to recover his value.
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Post by BrewCrewGuru on Feb 23, 2021 1:24:13 GMT -5
Tough to hide the Hosmer price tag, so I also give a slight edge to the Nats. That being said, I do agree with Jim in that Shawn wanted lineup boys and he got some lineup boys.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2021 6:23:53 GMT -5
I see Hosmer as a significant value loss....but that said, there is more upside from their end as well if Hosmer has a good year and is able to recover his value. This is the thought that the Padres front office wakes up to every morning. Go read Dave Camerons stuff at Fangraphs from before he signed in SD. He is what he is, its not coming back. 2020 was small sample, we had 2 full seasons before that to see where Hosmer was going. a first baseman that hits 22 homers and has a .315 OBP?!?!? over 50% GB in a guy who is not fast. and hes not good at 1st base. I think you DO have a valuation on draft picks, in the NSBL as draft picks... not as the player thats selected. I think everyone is aware of the value of draft picks, and its extremely inflated. I reached out about Hosmer last year, because I figured I'd take on that salary... NATs wanted value back so I was out, I see him as a salary dump even more so this year. looking at possible comps, Matt Carpenter isn't far off, signed as a free agent in BSNL for 1 year .750. last year in NBSL Justin Bour, Tyler White, Jared Walsh and Mitch Moreland I have has all unsigned... all of them in margin of error for comps to Hosmer.
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Post by BrewCrewGuru on Feb 24, 2021 16:02:21 GMT -5
I'm not gonna lie. I'm not sure that TB/SD deal is very good. Somewhere between very soft and just plain bad. I have opinions.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2021 12:43:07 GMT -5
To TB - Jacob DeGrom ($29 ends in 2021) To SD - Pick 3.22 in 2021, Pick 4.14 in 2021, Corey Ray, Jason Heyward, Stephen Piscotty, Edwin Encarnacion, and $10.170 MM in 2021
well, the value of the 3rd round pick and 4th round pick are what they are... inflated in this league. the rest of the pieces are throw ins. but not having to outfit an entire team in the free agent market has its advantages.
it DeGrom were less $$ or longer term, I'd agree with Sean, but... its 1 year and the salary are awash. if SD is in a contention window, sure take the picks.
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Post by Cubbies on Feb 25, 2021 12:55:18 GMT -5
I think it's a fine deal for a one year rental of one of the best pitchers in baseball. A lot of low key quality players that can fill a lot of lineup slots. Plus two picks.
Corey Ray is probably worthless longterm, but the rest of the deal is fine. I see no need to veto based on personal preference. It's obviously not so one sided it hurts the integrity of the league and it's not collusion.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2021 14:18:39 GMT -5
I'm still bitter about Gerrit Cole. I don't have anything constructive to add except that my deal was vetoed even though there was no collusion based on the return not being "enough" and deemed hurtful to the team/league. Circumstances that I was new don't actually impact the value of the pieces. Why can this deal go thru? It feels very "good ol' boys" to me. Ed and I were newer GMs, we essentially got censured. Connor and Deron are more established and get the benefit of the doubt.
Again, I'm still holding this grudge. I apologize for that. I just want to make sure that the standards for these types of deals are consistent. It feels pretty bad to watch blockbusters get done when I had to settle.
BitterBob
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2021 14:23:28 GMT -5
It feels very "good ol' boys" to me. Ed and I were newer GMs, we essentially got censured. Connor and Deron are more established and get the benefit of the doubt. Padres GM : Posts: 27 Date Registered: Dec 10, 2018 at 8:13pm good ol boys??? and Ed's been around a while. Man, Chris Sale got hurt like 3 years ago, and that contract had to predate his arm falling off.
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Post by marlinsgmed on Feb 25, 2021 14:37:03 GMT -5
I'm still bitter about Gerrit Cole. I don't have anything constructive to add except that my deal was vetoed even though there was no collusion based on the return not being "enough" and deemed hurtful to the team/league. Circumstances that I was new don't actually impact the value of the pieces. Why can this deal go thru? It feels very "good ol' boys" to me. Ed and I were newer GMs, we essentially got censured. Connor and Deron are more established and get the benefit of the doubt. Again, I'm still holding this grudge. I apologize for that. I just want to make sure that the standards for these types of deals are consistent. It feels pretty bad to watch blockbusters get done when I had to settle. BitterBob I wasn't a new guy Bob.. Deron is newer than me...but you are right in some aspects. That is the first thing I thought as well but that is in the past. I think the extra year with Cole made a difference. However, I thought the trade being vetoed, and all the subsequent whining from the portions league to me and accusing me of "taking advantage of the new guy," was utter horseshit. But that was the decision so life moves on. I see no problem with the SD trade. I advised him to try and get a little more but he has basically an entire offense to field and this helped a lot. Do I think he could have gotten more? Yes. I figured Tampa would LOVE to win it all and would have eventually given more, especially after some of the heartbreaks that model franchise had had. Is he his own man and made the best deal he thought for his team at the time? YES. We can all sit around and wonder this and that, but it is time to play ball soon.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2021 14:39:24 GMT -5
It feels very "good ol' boys" to me. Ed and I were newer GMs, we essentially got censured. Connor and Deron are more established and get the benefit of the doubt. Padres GM : Posts: 27 Date Registered: Dec 10, 2018 at 8:13pm good ol boys??? and Ed's been around a while. Man, Chris Sale got hurt like 3 years ago, and that contract had to predate his arm falling off. Sale was sign in 2019 according to the message board search feature. My point was that it feels like that to me. Again, I said it's coming from a negative place. I'm withdrawing from this particular topic as I really only have shitty things to add. Everyone else's points are perfectly valid, I just think it's a double standard.
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Post by Cubbies on Feb 25, 2021 14:55:00 GMT -5
I'll be honest, I don't even remember the Cole trade. I remember it happening and it got vetoed, but I was pretty checked out mentally already.
As a former Committee member I can tell you that these decisions are the hardest part of the league. We would constantly ebb and flow from "only for collusion" to "good of the league". And when the Committee starts to get into the "good of the league" territory, there is no right answer. Because then you start to dictate how other owners should value their players/prospects and run their teams. So either you piss off the two owners who made the deal that you're vetoing or you're pissing off a handful of other owners who thought it should've been vetoed. And then you have to worry about precedence like we have now.
No matter what happens here, feelings will be hurt and someone will feel wronged.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2021 14:56:12 GMT -5
oh, I agree with your point... I disagree that Deron is a good ole boy. thats all. if I remember right, I didn't understand your trade because you had just come into the league and it looked like you were going to rebuild. but the roster was pretty much there to contend, at least the rotation was there. Philosophically, I'm getting a little tired of trade veto votes. unless there is clear collusion... let it through, the idea that people are trying to "protect the team" are bullshit. If a GM guts a team, and then sticks around to flounder at the bottom of the standing no one says anything. So basically you are ruling against a current GM in favor of a person whose not even in the league yet... and then in most cases the new GM will want to rebuild anyway, if they have no assets, then great, they get to the build the team themselves.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2021 14:57:49 GMT -5
yes Joe "good of the league" thats is too fueled with bias. bad teams happen, tanking happens, find good GMs and role with the els and flows of contention. only veto if you have evidence of collusion... and then you should be shopping for 2 new GMS anyway.
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Post by marlinsgmed on Feb 25, 2021 15:07:35 GMT -5
yes Joe "good of the league" thats is too fueled with bias. bad teams happen, tanking happens, find good GMs and role with the els and flows of contention. only veto if you have evidence of collusion... and then you should be shopping for 2 new GMS anyway. Two points .. one in total agreement. 1. I am not smart enough to collude and anyone that does should get a life. 2. We could all get our feelings hurt a little less these days. It will all be ok I promise. side note: I respected the decision to cancel the trade, even if I didn't like it. What I do not respect is keyboard commandos. Let's play ball! You should all consider yourself fortunate I only have 12 million to play with or else I would Trout and Sale you again! The I could then field a team of 4 stars and the rest Orioles.. see their projections.
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Post by raysgm on Feb 25, 2021 15:50:56 GMT -5
I'll be honest, I don't even remember the Cole trade. I remember it happening and it got vetoed, but I was pretty checked out mentally already. As a former Committee member I can tell you that these decisions are the hardest part of the league. We would constantly ebb and flow from "only for collusion" to "good of the league". And when the Committee starts to get into the "good of the league" territory, there is no right answer. Because then you start to dictate how other owners should value their players/prospects and run their teams. So either you piss off the two owners who made the deal that you're vetoing or you're pissing off a handful of other owners who thought it should've been vetoed. And then you have to worry about precedence like we have now. No matter what happens here, feelings will be hurt and someone will feel wronged. If the committee would like to use my trade value data for any discussions regarding uneven trades, I'm happy to lend that resource regarding those players. Though it's not fully unbiased (nothing is), it is at least consistent in the way it makes valuations. Just throwing it out there if they want it, no worries if not.
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Post by Texas GM on Feb 25, 2021 16:28:35 GMT -5
No matter what happens here, feelings will be hurt and someone will feel wronged. I still have angst over the committee's decision to force me to add to sending Paul Dejong, Anthony Banda and Starlin Castro to HOU for Addison Russel and a 3 rd pick. I still believe that was a fair trade, but the committee didn't agree until I added heralded (at the time) prospect Nick Gordon to the deal. That said, where was the committee when I couldn't break out of Brian's hypnosis technique and traded him Mad Max Scherzer? It is a slippery slope when the league starts policing our analysis of our players, but in some cases things can appear very lopsided. In the case of the Degrom trade, I didn't like it, but I wouldn't veto it either.
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Post by raysgm on Feb 25, 2021 21:24:38 GMT -5
Since people are questioning the valuation of the DeGrom trade, figured it's only fair I throw out the valuations my model has on each player. As always, it's not clear of bias, since every model has bias, but it's at least consistent:
Jacob DeGrom: +$15.6 MM (expected to produce $44.6 MM of value in 2021, minus a $29 MM contract = $15.6 of surplus)
Jason Heyward: +$10 MM ($16.8 MM of production, $6.75 MM contract) Stephen Piscotty: +$0.1 MM ($4.5 MM of production, $4.4 MM contract) Edwin Encarnacion: -$4.4 MM ($1.3 MM of production, $5.75 MM contract) Cash: +$10.170 MM Pick 3.22: +$8-10 MM based on cost of past year trades and expected value of a player picked in this range (this is just my guess) Pick 4.14: +$7-10 MM based on cost of past year trades and expected value of a player picked in this range (this is just my guess) Corey Ray: +$5.7 MM (mean expected production ~0.9 WAR over 6 years of control). Prospect valuations are strange since it's more about a distribution than a mean, but I still treat them as a mean. This is what Ray's mean looks like:
Year: +0 | projWAR: 0.1 | Year value: $2.0 Est Salary: $0.6 | Year surplus: $1.4 Year: +1 | projWAR: 0.1 | Year value: $2.0 Est Salary: $0.6 | Year surplus: $1.4 Year: +2 | projWAR: 0.1 | Year value: $2.0 Est Salary: $0.7 | Year surplus: $1.3 Year: +3 | projWAR: 0.1 | Year value: $2.0 Est Salary: $1.0 | Year surplus: $1.0 Year: +4 | projWAR: 0.1 | Year value: $2.0 Est Salary: $1.5 | Year surplus: $0.5 Year: +5 | projWAR: 0.1 | Year value: $2.0 Est Salary: $2.0 | Year surplus: $0.0
So in total, TB trades somewhere between $30 MM and $40 MM of surplus production in exchange for $16 MM of surplus value. Now I am happy with the trade and very willing to do this, because for me, adding surplus in 2021 has a lot of value since I'm in a championship window and I can hopefully replace Jason Heyward with Harrison Bader and Franchy Cordero without losing too much production, whereas I was lacking high end talent in my rotation outside of Darvish and May.
Additionally, I will say that if I was in Deron's shoes I would have preferred to get that $30-$40 in a more condensed way rather than spreading it amongst 2 picks, 1 good player, 2 bench pieces, and a fringe prospect but to each their own.
Finally, I would have also held out those picks for a higher dollar amount as the recent cost of picks is much higher than $6 MM per pick, especially when one of the picks is in the 3rd round.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2021 22:35:00 GMT -5
You're valuing Corey Ray at $20MM per WAR? That seems a tad high.
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Post by raysgm on Feb 25, 2021 23:00:28 GMT -5
You're valuing Corey Ray at $20MM per WAR? That seems a tad high. That is an issue with rounded values since I only went 1 decimal place, but also a good excuse to go under the hood and look at how my prospect valuation model works: 1. Corey Ray received a 40+ FV (treated as 42 FV) by fangraphs in 2020 (2021 data is not out, and I didn't scrape mlb.com's 2020 prospect lists since they changed the backend data structure and I didn't want to write a new scraper....will try to get one up for this year though since they changed again and the data is handled nicer). 2. Certainly text words in a player's write-up raise/lower their FV in my prospect FV adjuster calculator (e.g. phrases like "high upside" or "breakout"). Ray received a +1 in this, for a 43 adjusted FV (adjFV). 3. Smoothing fangraph's research on prospect performance (e.g.: blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/) gives the following 6 year mean WAR production for prospect adjFVs: if position in ('sp', 'rp'): if adj_FV <= 38: war_val = 0.1 elif adj_FV > 38 and adj_FV <= 46: war_val = 0.1 + (adj_FV-38)*0.1 elif adj_FV > 46: war_val = 0.9 + (adj_FV-46)*0.35 else: if adj_FV <= 35: war_val = 0.1 elif adj_FV > 35 and adj_FV <= 47: war_val = 0.1 + (adj_FV-35)*0.1 elif adj_FV > 47: war_val = 1.3 + (adj_FV-47)*0.40 4. At 43 adjFV, Ray has a 6 year WAR estimation of: 0.1 + (43-35)*0.1 = 0.1 + 0.8*0.1 = 0.9 5. 0.9 WAR evenly distributed over 6 years = 0.15 WAR per season (this is where the rounded starts, as it rounded to 0.1 WAR per season as opposed to 0.15). 6. The cost per win for a prospect is slightly adjusted to account for volatility: year_dollar = (12.5 + (year-2019)*0.4) In 2021, that comes to $13.3 MM per WAR. 7. To summarize, this is the full estimation of his valuation: COREY RAY: OF (SD | MIL) - PROSPECT PAYOUT Contract: NonVet w/6 years remaining | Current Salary: $0.55 (N counted) adjFV: 43.0 | projWAR: 0.9 ( avgWAR: 0.1)
Year: +0 | projWAR: 0.1 | Year value: $2.0 Est Salary: $0.6 | Year surplus: $1.4 Year: +1 | projWAR: 0.1 | Year value: $2.0 Est Salary: $0.6 | Year surplus: $1.4 Year: +2 | projWAR: 0.1 | Year value: $2.0 Est Salary: $0.7 | Year surplus: $1.3 Year: +3 | projWAR: 0.1 | Year value: $2.0 Est Salary: $1.0 | Year surplus: $1.0 Year: +4 | projWAR: 0.1 | Year value: $2.0 Est Salary: $1.5 | Year surplus: $0.5 Year: +5 | projWAR: 0.1 | Year value: $2.0 Est Salary: $2.0 | Year surplus: $0.0
EST MODEL: Sum salary: $6.3 | Sum WAR: 0.9 | Sum value: $12.0 | Sum surplus: $5.7 PRESEASON MODEL: Sum salary: $6.3 | Sum WAR: 0.9 | Sum value: $12.0 | Sum surplus: $5.7 To compare, here are some other randomly selected prospects: WANDER FRANCO: IF (MIN | TBR) - PROSPECT PAYOUT Contract: NonVet w/6 years remaining | Current Salary: $0.55 (N counted) adjFV: 75.3 | projWAR: 12.6 ( avgWAR: 2.1)
Year: +0 | projWAR: 2.1 | Year value: $28.0 Est Salary: $0.6 | Year surplus: $27.4 Year: +1 | projWAR: 2.1 | Year value: $28.0 Est Salary: $1.3 | Year surplus: $26.7 Year: +2 | projWAR: 2.1 | Year value: $28.0 Est Salary: $2.5 | Year surplus: $25.5 Year: +3 | projWAR: 2.1 | Year value: $28.0 Est Salary: $5.5 | Year surplus: $22.5 Year: +4 | projWAR: 2.1 | Year value: $28.0 Est Salary: $9.0 | Year surplus: $19.0 Year: +5 | projWAR: 2.1 | Year value: $28.0 Est Salary: $17.5 | Year surplus: $10.5
EST MODEL: Sum salary: $36.3 | Sum WAR: 12.6 | Sum value: $167.8 | Sum surplus: $131.5 PRESEASON MODEL: Sum salary: $36.3 | Sum WAR: 12.6 | Sum value: $167.8 | Sum surplus: $131.5 SPENCER TORKELSON: IF (CHC | DET) - PROSPECT PAYOUT Contract: NonVet w/6 years remaining | Current Salary: $55.0 (N counted) adjFV: 54.6 | projWAR: 4.3 ( avgWAR: 0.7)
Year: +0 | projWAR: 0.7 | Year value: $9.6 Est Salary: $0.6 | Year surplus: $9.1 Year: +1 | projWAR: 0.7 | Year value: $9.6 Est Salary: $1.0 | Year surplus: $8.7 Year: +2 | projWAR: 0.7 | Year value: $9.6 Est Salary: $1.9 | Year surplus: $7.7 Year: +3 | projWAR: 0.7 | Year value: $9.6 Est Salary: $3.8 | Year surplus: $5.8 Year: +4 | projWAR: 0.7 | Year value: $9.6 Est Salary: $5.8 | Year surplus: $3.8 Year: +5 | projWAR: 0.7 | Year value: $9.6 Est Salary: $7.7 | Year surplus: $1.9
EST MODEL: Sum salary: $20.8 | Sum WAR: 4.3 | Sum value: $57.7 | Sum surplus: $37.0 PRESEASON MODEL: Sum salary: $20.8 | Sum WAR: 4.3 | Sum value: $57.7 | Sum surplus: $37.0 NOLAN JONES: IF (CLE | CLE) - PROSPECT PAYOUT Contract: NonVet w/6 years remaining | Current Salary: $0.55 (N counted) adjFV: 49.4 | projWAR: 2.3 ( avgWAR: 0.4)
Year: +0 | projWAR: 0.4 | Year value: $5.0 Est Salary: $0.6 | Year surplus: $4.5 Year: +1 | projWAR: 0.4 | Year value: $5.0 Est Salary: $0.6 | Year surplus: $4.4 Year: +2 | projWAR: 0.4 | Year value: $5.0 Est Salary: $1.0 | Year surplus: $4.0 Year: +3 | projWAR: 0.4 | Year value: $5.0 Est Salary: $2.0 | Year surplus: $3.0 Year: +4 | projWAR: 0.4 | Year value: $5.0 Est Salary: $3.0 | Year surplus: $2.0 Year: +5 | projWAR: 0.4 | Year value: $5.0 Est Salary: $4.0 | Year surplus: $1.0
EST MODEL: Sum salary: $11.2 | Sum WAR: 2.3 | Sum value: $30.1 | Sum surplus: $18.9 PRESEASON MODEL: Sum salary: $11.2 | Sum WAR: 2.3 | Sum value: $30.1 | Sum surplus: $18.9 AARON BRACHO: IF (ARI | CLE) - PROSPECT PAYOUT Contract: NonVet w/6 years remaining | Current Salary: $0.55 (N counted) adjFV: 43.4 | projWAR: 0.9 ( avgWAR: 0.2)
Year: +0 | projWAR: 0.2 | Year value: $2.1 Est Salary: $0.6 | Year surplus: $1.5 Year: +1 | projWAR: 0.2 | Year value: $2.1 Est Salary: $0.6 | Year surplus: $1.5 Year: +2 | projWAR: 0.2 | Year value: $2.1 Est Salary: $0.7 | Year surplus: $1.4 Year: +3 | projWAR: 0.2 | Year value: $2.1 Est Salary: $1.0 | Year surplus: $1.1 Year: +4 | projWAR: 0.2 | Year value: $2.1 Est Salary: $1.5 | Year surplus: $0.6 Year: +5 | projWAR: 0.2 | Year value: $2.1 Est Salary: $2.0 | Year surplus: $0.1
EST MODEL: Sum salary: $6.3 | Sum WAR: 0.9 | Sum value: $12.5 | Sum surplus: $6.2 PRESEASON MODEL: Sum salary: $6.3 | Sum WAR: 0.9 | Sum value: $12.5 | Sum surplus: $6.2 JOSE DE LEON: RP (CIN | CIN) - PROSPECT PAYOUT Contract: NonVet w/6 years remaining | Current Salary: $0.55 (N counted) adjFV: 40.7 | projWAR: 0.4 ( avgWAR: 0.1)
Year: +0 | projWAR: 0.1 | Year value: $0.8 Est Salary: $0.6 | Year surplus: $0.3 Year: +1 | projWAR: 0.1 | Year value: $0.8 Est Salary: $0.6 | Year surplus: $0.2 Year: +2 | projWAR: 0.1 | Year value: $0.8 Est Salary: $0.7 | Year surplus: $0.2 Year: +3 | projWAR: 0.1 | Year value: $0.8 Est Salary: $0.8 | Year surplus: $0.0 Year: +4 | projWAR: 0.1 | Year value: $0.8 Est Salary: $0.8 | Year surplus: $0.0 Year: +5 | projWAR: 0.1 | Year value: $0.8 Est Salary: $0.8 | Year surplus: $0.0
EST MODEL: Sum salary: $4.3 | Sum WAR: 0.4 | Sum value: $4.9 | Sum surplus: $0.7 PRESEASON MODEL: Sum salary: $4.3 | Sum WAR: 0.4 | Sum value: $4.9 | Sum surplus: $0.7 ALEC HANSEN: RP (TB | CHW) - PROSPECT PAYOUT Contract: NonVet w/6 years remaining | Current Salary: $0.55 (N counted) adjFV: 40.1 | projWAR: 0.3 ( avgWAR: 0.1)
Year: +0 | projWAR: 0.1 | Year value: $0.7 Est Salary: $0.6 | Year surplus: $0.1 Year: +1 | projWAR: 0.1 | Year value: $0.7 Est Salary: $0.6 | Year surplus: $0.1 Year: +2 | projWAR: 0.1 | Year value: $0.7 Est Salary: $0.7 | Year surplus: $0.0 Year: +3 | projWAR: 0.1 | Year value: $0.7 Est Salary: $0.7 | Year surplus: $0.0 Year: +4 | projWAR: 0.1 | Year value: $0.7 Est Salary: $0.7 | Year surplus: $0.0 Year: +5 | projWAR: 0.1 | Year value: $0.7 Est Salary: $0.7 | Year surplus: $0.0
EST MODEL: Sum salary: $3.9 | Sum WAR: 0.3 | Sum value: $4.1 | Sum surplus: $0.3 PRESEASON MODEL: Sum salary: $3.9 | Sum WAR: 0.3 | Sum value: $4.1 | Sum surplus: $0.3 I don't expect these to line up 100% with anybody's personal valuations, because that would be insane. But I do think it gives a decent approximation for what the trade value of prospects/players in both this league and MLB. Feel free to disagree or leave a comment/shoot me an e-mail if there's anything you'd like to discuss further (or think that's erroneous with the process and want me to look at!)
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Post by raysgm on Feb 25, 2021 23:09:50 GMT -5
To compare, here are some other randomly selected prospects: Figured I should also post the values of some random vets, which operate by a slightly different process (uses zips war, adjusts players based on aging curves, has a basic inflation calculator, etc.), but the mentality behind it is the same: RONALD ACUNA JR.: 23.0 yrs OF (TB | ATL) - EST PAYOUT Contract: NonVet w/5 years remaining | Current Salary: $1.155 (N counted)
Year: 2021 (100.0% remaining) | Age: 23.0 (age curve: 1.0) | zWAR: 6.2 | Year value: $53.4 (Inflation: +$0.0) Est salary: $1.2 | Raw year surplus: $52.2 (PV discount: 100.0%) | Rolling surplus: $52.2
Year: 2022 | Age: 24.0 (age curve: 1.07) | zWAR: 6.6 | Year value: $60.1 (Inflation: +$0.4) Est salary: $2.5 | Raw year surplus: $57.6 (PV discount: 92.0%) | Rolling surplus: $105.2
Year: 2023 | Age: 25.0 (age curve: 1.12) | zWAR: 6.9 | Year value: $65.8 (Inflation: +$0.8) Est salary: $5.5 | Raw year surplus: $60.3 (PV discount: 85.0%) | Rolling surplus: $156.2
Year: 2024 | Age: 26.0 (age curve: 1.15) | zWAR: 7.1 | Year value: $70.3 (Inflation: +$1.2) Est salary: $9.0 | Raw year surplus: $61.3 (PV discount: 78.0%) | Rolling surplus: $203.9
Year: 2025 | Age: 27.0 (age curve: 1.16) | zWAR: 7.1 | Year value: $73.5 (Inflation: +$1.6) Est salary: $17.5 | Raw year surplus: $56.0 (PV discount: 72.0%) | Rolling surplus: $244.0
Sum salary: $35.7 | Sum WAR: 33.8 | Sum value: $323.0 | Sum surplus: $244.0 MIKE YASTRZEMSKI: 30.0 yrs OF (MIN | SFG) - EST PAYOUT Contract: Vet w/3 years remaining | Current Salary: $5.042 (Y counted)
Year: 2021 (100.0% remaining) | Age: 30.0 (age curve: 1.0) | zWAR: 3.3 | Year value: $25.9 (Inflation: +$0.0) Est salary: $5.0 | Raw year surplus: $20.8 (PV discount: 100.0%) | Rolling surplus: $20.8
Year: 2022 | Age: 31.0 (age curve: 0.94) | zWAR: 3.1 | Year value: $24.9 (Inflation: +$0.4) Est salary: $5.0 | Raw year surplus: $19.8 (PV discount: 92.0%) | Rolling surplus: $39.1
Year: 2023 | Age: 32.0 (age curve: 0.86) | zWAR: 2.9 | Year value: $23.2 (Inflation: +$0.8) Est salary: $5.0 | Raw year surplus: $18.2 (PV discount: 85.0%) | Rolling surplus: $54.4
Sum salary: $15.1 | Sum WAR: 9.4 | Sum value: $73.9 | Sum surplus: $54.4 RAFAEL DEVERS: 24.0 yrs IF (LAA | BOS) - EST PAYOUT Contract: NonVet w/3 years remaining | Current Salary: $6.067 (N counted)
Year: 2021 (100.0% remaining) | Age: 24.0 (age curve: 1.0) | zWAR: 3.1 | Year value: $23.6 (Inflation: +$0.0) Est salary: $6.1 | Raw year surplus: $17.6 (PV discount: 100.0%) | Rolling surplus: $17.6
Year: 2022 | Age: 25.0 (age curve: 1.05) | zWAR: 3.3 | Year value: $26.2 (Inflation: +$0.4) Est salary: $9.0 | Raw year surplus: $17.2 (PV discount: 92.0%) | Rolling surplus: $33.4
Year: 2023 | Age: 26.0 (age curve: 1.07) | zWAR: 3.3 | Year value: $28.2 (Inflation: +$0.8) Est salary: $17.5 | Raw year surplus: $10.7 (PV discount: 85.0%) | Rolling surplus: $42.4
Sum salary: $32.6 | Sum WAR: 9.7 | Sum value: $78.0 | Sum surplus: $42.4 DANNY JANSEN: 26.0 yrs C (MIA | TOR) - EST PAYOUT Contract: NonVet w/5 years remaining | Current Salary: $0.715 (N counted)
Year: 2021 (100.0% remaining) | Age: 26.0 (age curve: 1.0) | zWAR: 1.9 | Year value: $9.1 (Inflation: +$0.0) Est salary: $0.7 | Raw year surplus: $8.4 (PV discount: 100.0%) | Rolling surplus: $8.4
Year: 2022 | Age: 27.0 (age curve: 1.01) | zWAR: 1.9 | Year value: $9.7 (Inflation: +$0.4) Est salary: $1.9 | Raw year surplus: $7.8 (PV discount: 92.0%) | Rolling surplus: $15.5
Year: 2023 | Age: 28.0 (age curve: 1.0) | zWAR: 1.9 | Year value: $10.1 (Inflation: +$0.8) Est salary: $4.0 | Raw year surplus: $6.0 (PV discount: 85.0%) | Rolling surplus: $20.6
Year: 2024 | Age: 29.0 (age curve: 0.97) | zWAR: 1.8 | Year value: $10.1 (Inflation: +$1.2) Est salary: $6.1 | Raw year surplus: $4.0 (PV discount: 78.0%) | Rolling surplus: $23.8
Year: 2025 | Age: 30.0 (age curve: 0.92) | zWAR: 1.7 | Year value: $9.7 (Inflation: +$1.6) Est salary: $7.8 | Raw year surplus: $1.9 (PV discount: 72.0%) | Rolling surplus: $25.2
Sum salary: $20.5 | Sum WAR: 9.2 | Sum value: $48.7 | Sum surplus: $25.2 CHAD GREEN: 30.0 yrs RP (ARI | NYY) - EST PAYOUT Contract: NonVet w/3 years remaining | Current Salary: $5.331 (N counted)
Year: 2021 (100.0% remaining) | Age: 30.0 (age curve: 1.0) | zWAR: 1.8 | Year value: $13.5 (Inflation: +$0.0) Est salary: $5.3 | Raw year surplus: $8.2 (PV discount: 100.0%) | Rolling surplus: $8.2
Year: 2022 | Age: 31.0 (age curve: 0.94) | zWAR: 1.7 | Year value: $13.0 (Inflation: +$0.4) Est salary: $7.8 | Raw year surplus: $5.2 (PV discount: 92.0%) | Rolling surplus: $13.0
Year: 2023 | Age: 32.0 (age curve: 0.86) | zWAR: 1.5 | Year value: $12.2 (Inflation: +$0.8) Est salary: $9.8 | Raw year surplus: $2.4 (PV discount: 85.0%) | Rolling surplus: $15.1
Sum salary: $22.9 | Sum WAR: 5.0 | Sum value: $38.8 | Sum surplus: $15.1 CHRIS TAYLOR: 30.0 yrs OF (PIT | LAD) - EST PAYOUT Contract: NonVet w/1 years remaining | Current Salary: $5.673 (N counted)
Year: 2021 (100.0% remaining) | Age: 30.0 (age curve: 1.0) | zWAR: 2.6 | Year value: $18.2 (Inflation: +$0.0) Est salary: $5.7 | Raw year surplus: $12.6 (PV discount: 100.0%) | Rolling surplus: $12.6
Sum salary: $5.7 | Sum WAR: 2.6 | Sum value: $18.2 | Sum surplus: $12.6 ADAM EATON: 32.0 yrs OF (DET | WSN) - EST PAYOUT Contract: Vet w/2 years remaining | Current Salary: $10.797 (Y counted)
Year: 2021 (100.0% remaining) | Age: 32.0 (age curve: 1.0) | zWAR: 1.9 | Year value: $11.7 (Inflation: +$0.0) Est salary: $10.8 | Raw year surplus: $0.9 (PV discount: 100.0%) | Rolling surplus: $0.9
Year: 2022 | Age: 33.0 (age curve: 0.9) | zWAR: 1.7 | Year value: $10.3 (Inflation: +$0.4) Est salary: $10.8 | Raw year surplus: $-0.5 (PV discount: 92.0%) | Rolling surplus: $0.5
Sum salary: $21.6 | Sum WAR: 3.6 | Sum value: $22.1 | Sum surplus: $0.5 SHELBY MILLER: 30.0 yrs RP (HOU | MIL) - EST PAYOUT Contract: Vet w/3 years remaining | Current Salary: $5.0 (Y counted)
Year: 2021 (100.0% remaining) | Age: 30.0 (age curve: 1.0) | zWAR: 0.1 | Year value: $0.3 (Inflation: +$0.0) Est salary: $5.0 | Raw year surplus: $-4.7 (PV discount: 100.0%) | Rolling surplus: $-4.7
Year: 2022 | Age: 31.0 (age curve: 0.94) | zWAR: 0.1 | Year value: $0.3 (Inflation: +$0.4) Est salary: $5.0 | Raw year surplus: $-4.7 (PV discount: 92.0%) | Rolling surplus: $-9.0
Year: 2023 | Age: 32.0 (age curve: 0.86) | zWAR: 0.1 | Year value: $0.3 (Inflation: +$0.8) Est salary: $5.0 | Raw year surplus: $-4.7 (PV discount: 85.0%) | Rolling surplus: $-13.0
Sum salary: $15.0 | Sum WAR: 0.3 | Sum value: $0.9 | Sum surplus: $-13.0
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Post by Deleted on Feb 26, 2021 6:32:07 GMT -5
this vacuum player value is all fine and good. you can make the numbers say anything you want, and the graphics actually confuse the matter more... so I guess thats good when you are trying to defend your trade.
but... in team / contention window context. things are very different. of the assets you are trading only the picks have any value at all for the Padres, and they are picks, to their value is completely speculative.
Piscottty, Heyward and Encarnacion can all be replaced in free agency for almost nothing. Corey Ray, at 26 years old... even at FV 40.. come on man... FV 40 guys are traded around like freaking candy. and this valuation is inflated due to grades on run, field, strength. "if hes a good hitter, why doesn't he hit good.?"
all that said, im fine with your trade. but all the graphs, man, and your player evaluations are very very "chewbacca defense"
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