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Post by Cubbies on Feb 10, 2013 1:25:08 GMT -5
Bidding Wars: Age: Years: Amount: Option: Day 2: Day 1:
Yoenis Cespedes 28 6 13.425 Y MIL SD
Yu Darvish 27 6 19.000 N OAK TB
David Wright 31 6 15.750 No WASH** OAK
Signed Players: Age: Years: Amount: Option: Team
Matt Garza 30 3 11.000 No CHC
E5 Encarnacion 30 3 11.800 No LAA
Shin soo Choo 31 3 11.705 N BALT
Alex Gordon 29 4 12.155 N AZ**
Adrian Beltre 34 3 20.450 N SEA**
James Shields 32 4 12.500 N BOS**
R.A. Dickey 39 4 12.000 N NYY
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Post by raysgm on Feb 10, 2013 14:20:41 GMT -5
TB signs Yu Darvish.
7 years - $21.05 million per year - no option.
I'm pretty sure this is the 2nd biggest contract ever given in the NSBL behind Pujols.
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Post by Elephanti! on Feb 10, 2013 14:27:25 GMT -5
And WAS signs David Wright for 5 years, $18M, no option.
I got shut out in tier 1. I need to put in some work in the remaining tiers. I think I pushed both Connor and Patrick to the brink with Darvish/Beltre, and I took Wright as far as I was comfortable. You're welcome rest of NSBL.
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Post by Cubbies on Feb 10, 2013 14:44:11 GMT -5
I have confirmation from one team that Cespedes has been signed as well. Just waiting for confirmation from the winning team. I have the rosters all updated, just waiting for that last confirmation before uploading it.
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Post by raysgm on Feb 10, 2013 15:03:27 GMT -5
Some Notes:
This is my 5th year of free agency in this league.
My largest total spending (assuming all options were accepted) was 2009, where I spent a LT value of $147.432 (or $123.172 if all options were declined.)
Darvish alone just got $147.35.
In my mind he is the most valuable player to ever hit free agency in this league due to the combination of current talent, upside, age, and current projection, so it does make sense that he got such a huge contract, but I can say I was getting quite nervous when the bidding war charged past the $125 million total value mark.
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Post by Texas GM on Feb 10, 2013 15:08:31 GMT -5
Depending on what the final # is on Cespedes, it appears that there was something north of $635M of long term debt taken on 42 years of contriol for 10 FA. That's $15M+ per year, per player on average. Essentially, the entire league's long term debt was raised by 20% with the signing of 10 free agents. If my math isn't fuzzy, it also represented about 20% of all the available cash the league had available for 2013.  |
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Post by LA Angels GM on Feb 10, 2013 15:36:50 GMT -5
Depending on what the final # is on Cespedes, it appears that there was something north of $635M of long term debt taken on 42 years of contriol for 10 FA. That's $15M+ per year, per player on average. Essentially, the entire league's long term debt was raised by 20% with the signing of 10 free agents. If my math isn't fuzzy, it also represented about 20% of all the available cash the league had available for 2013. You think that's crazy, wait until next year's free agency period. Good Lawd, there's going to be some pitchers available! |
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Post by LA Angels GM on Feb 10, 2013 15:39:44 GMT -5
I personally feel as though the Alex Gordon deal is the best of Tier 1. He's an elite player who is still getting better, and Arizona just locked him up for 4 years at less than 12 million (once discount rights get added in). Steal, IMO.
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Post by LA Angels GM on Feb 10, 2013 15:42:26 GMT -5
In my mind he is the most valuable player to ever hit free agency in this league due to the combination of current talent, upside, age, and current projection, so it does make sense that he got such a huge contract, but I can't say I was getting quite nervous when the bidding war charged past the $125 million total value mark. I can't dispute any of those things you said, but giving a pitcher that much for that long scares the bejeezus out of me. Especially one who's only spent one year in the (American) majors. Every contract has risks, but a pitcher carries much more risk. This coming from the guy who signed Pujols to a 7 year deal, so take that for what it's worth. |
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Post by Cubbies on Feb 10, 2013 16:06:17 GMT -5
In my mind he is the most valuable player to ever hit free agency in this league due to the combination of current talent, upside, age, and current projection, so it does make sense that he got such a huge contract, but I can't say I was getting quite nervous when the bidding war charged past the $125 million total value mark. So what does that say about Felix Hernandez next season who is 4 months younger than Darvish, has a much longer track record, and better numbers? Personally, I think this is a gross overpayment on Darvish. I think he walks too many batters and that the league will figure him out shortly like they did Dice-K. I like Darvish okay as a pitcher, but I don't consider him an ace yet (but he is a #1). But he is getting paid a Top Three contract. IMO he is being overpaid by about 5 or 6 million a season, and I don't think I would have gone over 5 years with an option on him because there are still so many questions. |
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Post by bluejaysgm on Feb 10, 2013 16:09:41 GMT -5
Joe, is the link on your sig the updated spreadsheet after FA's signed or still before?
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Post by raysgm on Feb 10, 2013 16:15:11 GMT -5
In my mind he is the most valuable player to ever hit free agency in this league due to the combination of current talent, upside, age, and current projection, so it does make sense that he got such a huge contract, but I can't say I was getting quite nervous when the bidding war charged past the $125 million total value mark. So what does that say about Felix Hernandez next season who is 4 months younger than Darvish, has a much longer track record, and better numbers? Personally, I think this is a gross overpayment on Darvish. I think he walks too many batters and that the league will figure him out shortly like they did Dice-K. I like Darvish okay as a pitcher, but I don't consider him an ace yet (but he is a #1). But he is getting paid a Top Three contract. IMO he is being overpaid by about 5 or 6 million a season, and I don't think I would have gone over 5 years with an option on him because there are still so many questions. It means Felix is gonna get paid, and gonna get paid a lot. If I have a need at SP and the cash next offseason, I wouldn't hesitate to give him a contract similar to the RL 7/175 he just signed, the dude is a baller |
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Post by LA Angels GM on Feb 10, 2013 16:24:34 GMT -5
Joe, is the link on your sig the updated spreadsheet after FA's signed or still before? I think it's still before. He's waiting for confirmation from one team on Cespedes. |
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Post by Texas GM on Feb 10, 2013 16:27:01 GMT -5
Some Notes: Darvish alone just got $147.35. In my mind he is the most valuable player to ever hit free agency in this league due to the combination of current talent, upside, age, and current projection, so it does make sense that he got such a huge contract, but I can't say I was getting quite nervous when the bidding war charged past the $125 million total value mark. That's an interesting take. When I was trying to calculate what his contract might be, I thought there was a chance someone would give him a 7 yr. / $125M deal. You spoke of upside and that's what concerned me too. Darvish had a 5.1 WAR in 2012. 4 SP had a higher WAR in 2012. Over the course of the last 7 seasons, in total, 3 SP have accumulated more than an average of 5.1 WAR for that 7 year span. They were Verlander (5.6), Halladay (6.18) and Sabathia (6.22). That means it will take perfect health, max innings and flawless results to see the upside that puts him into that rarified air. I figured that if a SP is worth $4.5M per WAR today, then over the next 7 years, 1 WAR would be worth an average of $5.75M. If Darvish repeats his 5.1 WAR for 7 more years, that would mean he had a 35.7 WAR and was worth $205M. If he pitches like Sabathia for the next 7 years, he could be worth $250M. If you accept $5.75M per WAR as an average # over the course of the next 7 years, Darvish would have to be 25.6 WAR to earn that money. 13 SP have earned that much WAR over the last 7 years. This will be an interesting study in SP contracts. |
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Post by Cubbies on Feb 10, 2013 16:31:37 GMT -5
The new roster is now up, completely updated with all Tier 1 signings and all current trades (although I just remembered there were a couple waivers that I didn't do... oh well).
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Post by Elephanti! on Feb 10, 2013 18:46:22 GMT -5
I figured that if a SP is worth $4.5M per WAR today, then over the next 7 years, 1 WAR would be worth an average of $5.75M. Why? I could be mistaken, but I don't think there are any inflation multipliers in the financial model. Ceteris paribus, a win this year will cost the same as a win 4 years from now. |
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Post by Texas GM on Feb 10, 2013 19:08:30 GMT -5
I figured that if a SP is worth $4.5M per WAR today, then over the next 7 years, 1 WAR would be worth an average of $5.75M. Why? I could be mistaken, but I don't think there are any inflation multipliers in the financial model. Ceteris paribus, a win this year will cost the same as a win 4 years from now. Tampa's cost won't change, but the cost of 1 WAR for a FA SP will escalate in this league, just as it has in RL. In 2002, the cost of 1 WAR from a SP was about $2.7M and in 2006 it was about 3.6M. Today, on the open FA market, it's about $4.5M. With that inflation, you would figure that the $4.5 per WAR will be nearing $6-6.5M per, no? Maybe my guess of an average of $5.75 is a bit high, but essentially I'm saying that in 4-5 years a SP with a 5.1 WAR will be valued in the FA at about $29M per year. |
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Post by LA Angels GM on Feb 10, 2013 19:08:40 GMT -5
I know there was talk of having the minimum salary's increase, but they haven't yet. I'm glad.
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Post by LA Angels GM on Feb 10, 2013 19:10:54 GMT -5
Why? I could be mistaken, but I don't think there are any inflation multipliers in the financial model. Ceteris paribus, a win this year will cost the same as a win 4 years from now. Tampa's cost won't change, but the cost of 1 WAR for a FA SP will escalate in this league, just as it has in RL. In 2002, the cost of 1 WAR from a SP was about $2.7M and in 2006 it was about 3.6M. Today, on the open FA market, it's about $4.5M. With that inflation, you would figure that the $4.5 per WAR will be nearing $6-6.5M per, no? Maybe my guess of an average of $5.75 is a bit high, but essentially I'm saying that in 4-5 years a SP with a 5.1 WAR will be valued in the FA at about $29M per year. But the difference is, unlike in real life, our payrolls stay roughly the same. Yeah, some teams increase, but others decrease, keeping it roughly the same from year to year. |
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Post by Texas GM on Feb 10, 2013 19:22:07 GMT -5
Tampa's cost won't change, but the cost of 1 WAR for a FA SP will escalate in this league, just as it has in RL. In 2002, the cost of 1 WAR from a SP was about $2.7M and in 2006 it was about 3.6M. Today, on the open FA market, it's about $4.5M. With that inflation, you would figure that the $4.5 per WAR will be nearing $6-6.5M per, no? Maybe my guess of an average of $5.75 is a bit high, but essentially I'm saying that in 4-5 years a SP with a 5.1 WAR will be valued in the FA at about $29M per year. But the difference is, unlike in real life, our payrolls stay roughly the same. Yeah, some teams increase, but others decrease, keeping it roughly the same from year to year. I didn't know that the league didn't increase for inflation from time to time. |
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Post by raysgm on Feb 10, 2013 19:22:22 GMT -5
I believe Darvish is being paid at roughly slightly below average value right now, and the slight overpay is negated by the fact that you sometimes have to overpay for top end talent.
Think about it this way, does one 5 win player equal five 1 win players? The answer is clearly no, but it's hard to say how much more valuable the one star player is, but clearly I feel like Darvish is worth the contract, especially since ace pitchers and power hitters are the two commodities that you sometimes have to overpay for in this league.
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Post by LA Angels GM on Feb 10, 2013 19:33:54 GMT -5
But the difference is, unlike in real life, our payrolls stay roughly the same. Yeah, some teams increase, but others decrease, keeping it roughly the same from year to year. I didn't know that the league didn't increase for inflation from time to time. When I first joined the league, the rules stated that the minimum salary would go up every 3 or 4 years. I don't remember the exact number of years between raises, but it was something like that. Needless to say, it never increased, and this is what the rules say now: I personally don't see the need for us to increase the minimum. |
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Post by bluejaysgm on Feb 10, 2013 20:08:57 GMT -5
But the difference is, unlike in real life, our payrolls stay roughly the same. Yeah, some teams increase, but others decrease, keeping it roughly the same from year to year. I didn't know that the league didn't increase for inflation from time to time. We haven't in quite a while I believe. I could be wrong though. I haven't studied it the last couple years to look at league salary spent vs MLB's salary spent the previous year. that is what we used to compare. |
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Post by rockiesgm on Feb 10, 2013 20:15:31 GMT -5
I personally feel as though the Alex Gordon deal is the best of Tier 1. He's an elite player who is still getting better, and Arizona just locked him up for 4 years at less than 12 million (once discount rights get added in). Steal, IMO. You and I have a different definition of "elite". Gordon is a solid player but he's far from elite. He's 29 years old and has OPS'd above .822 exactly once. All that from a corner outfield spot thats the second least premium position on the diamond (behind 1st base). You just can't play a corner spot while lacking power and be called elite, in my opinion. |
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Post by LA Angels GM on Feb 10, 2013 20:28:06 GMT -5
I personally feel as though the Alex Gordon deal is the best of Tier 1. He's an elite player who is still getting better, and Arizona just locked him up for 4 years at less than 12 million (once discount rights get added in). Steal, IMO. You and I have a different definition of "elite". Gordon is a solid player but he's far from elite. He's 29 years old and has OPS'd above .822 exactly once. All that from a corner outfield spot thats the second least premium position on the diamond (behind 1st base). You just can't play a corner spot while lacking power and be called elite, in my opinion. The last two years his OPS+ were 140 and 125. Add to that his two gold gloves, and I consider him elite. Choo, on the other hand, is a worse hitter, worse fielder, and was signed to more money than Gordon (after the discount rights are taken off). |
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Post by sanfran on Feb 10, 2013 20:55:39 GMT -5
we do increase for inflation, commensurate with real life salaries - though we lag a tad bit behind to keep from having a big rebound. I see the real life salaries beginning to escalate more quickly with all the new TV money being thrown around. It explains all the massive deals being signed this year. Grab em before the price goes way up.
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Post by rockiesgm on Feb 10, 2013 21:08:19 GMT -5
You and I have a different definition of "elite". Gordon is a solid player but he's far from elite. He's 29 years old and has OPS'd above .822 exactly once. All that from a corner outfield spot thats the second least premium position on the diamond (behind 1st base). You just can't play a corner spot while lacking power and be called elite, in my opinion. The last two years his OPS+ were 140 and 125. Add to that his two gold gloves, and I consider him elite. Choo, on the other hand, is a worse hitter, worse fielder, and was signed to more money than Gordon (after the discount rights are taken off). Debating you on this will be pointless If you point to gold glove awards as proof of anything at all. |
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Post by LA Angels GM on Feb 10, 2013 21:14:31 GMT -5
The last two years his OPS+ were 140 and 125. Add to that his two gold gloves, and I consider him elite. Choo, on the other hand, is a worse hitter, worse fielder, and was signed to more money than Gordon (after the discount rights are taken off). Debating you on this will be pointless If you point to gold glove awards as proof of anything at all. I agree Gold Gloves don't mean anything (hello, Derek Jeter!), but it's no secret that Gordon is an outstanding defensive outfielder. Choo is no slouch, either, at the dish or in the field, but Gordon is younger and better. There's no reason that Choo should get more money in the same free agency period. I think Gordon is an elite outfielder and will only get better. If you disagree, that's fine. |
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Post by bigredmachine on Feb 10, 2013 23:31:58 GMT -5
I really wanted a 3b this offseason and was going to go after Wright but I wasnt sold on him long term. Glad I got Miggy for what I did. I was nervous taking on his contract but Its right about what it would of cost for Wright or Beltre. I think the Wright contact came out pretty good after the discount though.
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