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Post by Pirates GM on Apr 20, 2024 8:45:04 GMT -5
Hey guys,
I know we've talked about this, but there's never been a clear answer. Is OOTP based on ZiPS, or is there no relation? Those nerds over at MLBSA are so rock hard for OOTP that they swear it's ZiPS-based and claim it's nearly identical to ZiPS- even though it's clearly not. Despite what ZiPS projects, does everyone just go with OOTP ratings in the end?
One example: OF Tyler Gentry
*According to ZiPS, he should be a very useful 4th OF.
ZiPS projection: 98 OPS+, +6 def, 1.3 WAR
*But according to OOTP, he probably shouldn't be rostered, and this happened to me all the time in 2023.
OOTP projection: All hitting ranges in the 40s-50s, LF Def 40, RF Def 40
That guy went from being a defensive asset in ZiPS, to a complete liability in OOTP.
I'm sure everyone has guys like this. Do we look at ZiPS as an early approximation, with OOTP's ratings the be-all, end-all in the end? Thanks,
JIm
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Post by Elephanti! on Apr 20, 2024 9:17:13 GMT -5
From what I understand, OOTP takes ZiPS as their starting point, then adjusts ratings to shape the roster how they envision the teams to be constructed. So for example, if two starting pitchers have similar ZiPS but one is a lock for the MLB rotation, and the other is going to AA, the MLB player will almost certainly have higher ratings.
So, yes, OOTP ratings are king, and it's why I thought it was so important to delay free agency until the software was released.
Also an important thing to note is to look at the base ratings rather than the overall. The overall does weird shit that doesn't always align with the player's value.
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Post by Elephanti! on Apr 20, 2024 9:28:55 GMT -5
Oh, and I stole these from my other league's discord. These are graphs of the correlation between ratings and production: Hitters Part One:    |
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Post by Elephanti! on Apr 20, 2024 9:30:33 GMT -5
Hitters Part Two:   Pitchers Part One:  |
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Post by Elephanti! on Apr 20, 2024 9:31:05 GMT -5
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Post by Pirates GM on Apr 20, 2024 15:03:55 GMT -5
Thanks Jeff! Judging by those graphs, maybe OOTP gives a more consistent output relative to what the projections are going in. And if that's the case, it will be a welcome upgrade over Diamond Mind.
1. But that's tough too: with Diamond Mind, you had exact ZiPS projections as your starting point. When you open OOTP for a new season, I don't really see any way to generate projections, other than just infer from the overall ratings assigned to each player.
2. I 1000% agree with your assessment of delaying free agency until OOTP ratings are out. Here's just one example where I easily got burned by looking at ZiPS:
RP Ryan Burr
ZiPS: 3.79 ERA, 111 ERA+, 0.4 WAR
I thought I'd gotten good value for a bullpen arm on a 1-year deal at $1.450MM. Until I saw his OOTP:
OOTP: 2 stars, 43 Stuff, 57 Movement, 51 Control
This dude is going to get lit the hell up; basically a waste of $1.450MM for me; I have a handful of AAA guys in-house with better projections. Argh.
That's my thing. If OOTP is based off of ZiPS, I also wish there weren't such extreme deviations.
JIm
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Post by raysgm on Apr 21, 2024 1:43:52 GMT -5
Those are great, thanks for sharing Jeff
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Post by BrewCrewGuru on Apr 21, 2024 10:40:21 GMT -5
My counterpoint to the idea that we need to wait to start FA until we have the OOTP release is simply this...
A projection is not a guarantee of production.
Yes, it can inform how much you want to spend. Yes, it gives you a relative idea of a player's upcoming performance. Again, not a guarantee of production. We've had plenty of GMs sign guys knowing their DMB projection be disappointed by those players.
To equate this to real life, do you think MLB teams are always happy with their free agent signings? They thought they had a good idea of what they were buying.
Perfect information is just not achievable in this situation. A single season simulation has so many possible outcomes and projections are essentially a median guess to give visibility to those outcomes. That is why Dan has started listing the percentile outcomes in ZIPS releases.
I think the answer is hybrid. We execute T1 without the OOTP ratings. Most of the players in T1 are known commodities or international players worth taking a risk for signing. I'm certain we can always find 10-15 players that are relatively safe bets without knowing their OOTP numbers.
I do think having ratings for the up/down and AAAA types that make up a lot of NSBL benches is a fine plan. I just think waiting to start T1 is kind of silly. Let's do T1 after ZIPS before OOTP. This will give teams that took the plunge on a marquee FA time to figure out their money situations and other teams time to plan their T2D1 attack.
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Post by Pirates GM on Apr 21, 2024 12:27:28 GMT -5
I think the answer is hybrid. We execute T1 without the OOTP ratings. Most of the players in T1 are known commodities or international players worth taking a risk for signing. I'm certain we can always find 10-15 players that are relatively safe bets without knowing their OOTP numbers. I think that's a fair compromise. Good idea, JIm |
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Post by nymetsgm on Apr 21, 2024 14:12:01 GMT -5
That’s what we just did this year.
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Post by Elephanti! on Apr 21, 2024 18:11:17 GMT -5
Yeah, I was happy with the timing of free agency this year. Didn't mean it come off as an active complaint. I was more talking about last year's free agency where the ZiPS and OOTP dis-alignment was rough for the fringe MLBers and relievers.
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