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Post by Pirates GM on Aug 7, 2023 12:40:41 GMT -5
Hey.
So ZiPS on Fangraphs was such a great source when eyeing up players in trade, or drafting older players with immediate sim ratings when we were on DMB.
Now that we're on OOTP, is there an easy website to visit for projections, or are we better off loading the program, and just searching the players through other rosters, etc.?
I wish ZiPS still gave ballpark similar projections, but so far, I've found a handful of their projections wildly divergent from what OOTP has in their program. Thanks!
JIm
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Post by Elephanti! on Aug 7, 2023 13:52:00 GMT -5
I would check the team page in OOTP. But be aware that there is a thing called "scouting accuracy" in OOTP so the ratings you see are not 100% accurate. I don't know what our accuracy is set to for the league though.
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Post by LA Angels GM on Aug 7, 2023 15:17:20 GMT -5
I learned this year that ZiPS does not correlate with OOTP. So... that sucks. I'll still check ZiPS out for funsies, but it doesn't mean much. Best thing to do, I think, is check them out in OOTP. For next year's scouting, I will check them out this year's OOTP ratings and compare them to their RL stats and make a best guess as to how they will be in next year's version.
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Post by Elephanti! on Aug 7, 2023 18:25:17 GMT -5
AFAIK ZiPS are the basis for the OOTP ratings, but then they massage them from there to get the results that they want in their simulation. So if the player is expected to make the major league team, their OOTP ratings are going to reflect that they're a good enough player to make the 25 man roster of that organization.
I would be in favor of delaying our free agency until the yearly release of OOTP from here on out.
EDIT: But it does add more uncertainty to the free agency process, so I can see the argument against delaying. The real issue is when it does release and there's a flood of new data; should we hold a supplemental free agency period?
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Post by Pirates GM on Aug 7, 2023 20:07:16 GMT -5
Considering how much money is laid out in free agency, I would be fine with delaying as well. If guys are dropping potentially 9-figure deals, they deserve to know what they're getting sim-wise, at least for the opening year.
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Post by LA Angels GM on Aug 7, 2023 21:00:40 GMT -5
To speed it up, I'd be fine doing tier 1 before OOTP drops. With those guys, you know what you're getting.
I also think it could be fun to hold tier 2 before OOTP releases. Teams may be more careful with the mid-tier guys.
Tier 3, though, should be after OOTP releases. Let teams go all out on players that slipped through the cracks and have decent ratings. With the uncertainty of T2, a few more guys may slip to T3 than in the past.
Just a thought.
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Post by bluejaysgm on Aug 8, 2023 10:13:41 GMT -5
Considering how much money is laid out in free agency, I would be fine with delaying as well. If guys are dropping potentially 9-figure deals, they deserve to know what they're getting sim-wise, at least for the opening year. Definitely moving to this train of thought for next year. We have FA set up now to start after all of Zips is out. With it not being a match I think it makes sense (if we want to keep it so that GM's have all of the info) to wait until OOTP comes out. |
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Post by phillies17 on Aug 9, 2023 6:42:43 GMT -5
I would like to see a little more information regarding the projections and value in this system. I really don't like the 30-70 concept, it is way too vague for real decision making.
There is no way Adam Plutko should be my best starting pitcher, and the 12th best SP in the NL.
He really should not even have a projection and the only reason he is still on my roster is because of the delay in starting this season and I thought I had sent in an updated lineup to start our official season.
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Post by BrewCrewGuru on Aug 9, 2023 8:01:14 GMT -5
FREE AGENCY SHOULD BE AN UNCERTAIN PROCESS! BUYER BEWARE!
C'mon, y'all. You think performance is guaranteed in real life just because a guy got paid? We all know that isn't the case. I'm probably the only one that thinks this topic feels disingenuous.
ZIPS is still the foundation for OOTP. They get the one of the earliest finalized runs of ZIPS from Dan in order to start building their ratings. They just happen to have their own ideas about how those projections translate within their game. ZIPS is a fine foundation to make free agency decisions.
Talking about the 20-80 scales. I can assure you that if we used single increments versus 5 point increments doesn't matter. The "feature" of scouting accuracy ensures that the numbers remain speculative. Waiting for OOTP to release to run free agency would only amplify this for some players. Especially international players, like Adam Plutko who has spent the last couple years in the KBO.
There is not a clean answer. There will always be risk and variance. We have all made decision based on ZIPS and had some of them not workout the way we thought it should. The same thing will happen if we try to use OOTP ratings the same way.
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Post by LA Angels GM on Aug 9, 2023 9:51:46 GMT -5
FREE AGENCY SHOULD BE AN UNCERTAIN PROCESS! BUYER BEWARE! C'mon, y'all. You think performance is guaranteed in real life just because a guy got paid? We all know that isn't the case. I'm probably the only one that thinks this topic feels disingenuous. ZIPS is still the foundation for OOTP. They get the one of the earliest finalized runs of ZIPS from Dan in order to start building their ratings. They just happen to have their own ideas about how those projections translate within their game. ZIPS is a fine foundation to make free agency decisions. Talking about the 20-80 scales. I can assure you that if we used single increments versus 5 point increments doesn't matter. The "feature" of scouting accuracy ensures that the numbers remain speculative. Waiting for OOTP to release to run free agency would only amplify this for some players. Especially international players, like Adam Plutko who has spent the last couple years in the KBO. There is not a clean answer. There will always be risk and variance. We have all made decision based on ZIPS and had some of them not workout the way we thought it should. The same thing will happen if we try to use OOTP ratings the same way. 100% agree, which is I would like tiers 1 and 2 to be before OOTP is released. I think it would make for an interesting free agency. Honestly, there's no reason to have to wait for tier 1. You know what you're getting with those guys. After OOTP is released, have a one week tier 3, to pick up on the guys that are surprises or unknowns. I think more guys who get 2 year deals now would make their way to tier 3, which could make T3 even more fun. |
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Post by phillies17 on Aug 9, 2023 10:26:12 GMT -5
Do we have player development turned on? We did not turn on scouting and OSA is poor with no resources to accurately scout our players. Looking online, OSA is not very good for player ratings and does not appear to align with ZIPs data very well. How exactly are we supposed to make informed decisions about our rosters and players in this tool?
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Post by BrewCrewGuru on Aug 9, 2023 10:37:11 GMT -5
Do we have player development turned on? We did not turn on scouting and OSA is poor with no resources to accurately scout our players. Looking online, OSA is not very good for player ratings and does not appear to align with ZIPs data very well. How exactly are we supposed to make informed decisions about our rosters and players in this tool? Honestly, I don't know. Every test sim I ran before Travis ran our test sim had players changing ratings over the course of the season. When it happened in our test sim with everything set correctly, I just assumed it was a "feature" that can't be fully disabled. I'm treating it like there will just be guys that don't sim well year to year. I signed lots of guys that I thought lined up with good projection data that couldn't sim in DMB no matter how many times you ran the projection thru (cough - Kris Benson - cough). I've not found great answers on the OOTP message boards and my attempts to engage other OOTP leagues has not yielded any information. If anyone finds a better answer than just accepting it as part of the system, it would make me elated. Months of trying to figure it out has just beaten me down. |
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Post by Pirates GM on Aug 9, 2023 18:01:24 GMT -5
Talking about the 20-80 scales. I can assure you that if we used single increments versus 5 point increments doesn't matter. This is incorrect, and I've mentioned it before. Next year, I think GMs would really enjoy moving to the 0-100 optional OOTP scale once they get used to it. The problem with a 20-80 scale- and/or a 5-point vs. 1-point scale you alluded to- is that it incorrectly groups 80% of the league into the middle of the curve, despite widely varying actual production. I played OOTP for years with 20-80, and got frustrated because so many guys fell into the 40-60 range for almost all tools, yet produced very differently. Once I changed to 0-100, their ratings more accurately reflected their production levels. There's no need to stay with 20-80, other than tradition- which we've definitely got against with more frequency here. |
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Post by BrewCrewGuru on Aug 9, 2023 18:38:17 GMT -5
Talking about the 20-80 scales. I can assure you that if we used single increments versus 5 point increments doesn't matter. This is incorrect, and I've mentioned it before. Next year, I think GMs would really enjoy moving to the 0-100 optional OOTP scale once they get used to it. The problem with a 20-80 scale- and/or a 5-point vs. 1-point scale you alluded to- is that it incorrectly groups 80% of the league into the middle of the curve, despite widely varying actual production. I played OOTP for years with 20-80, and got frustrated because so many guys fell into the 40-60 range for almost all tools, yet produced very differently. Once I changed to 0-100, their ratings more accurately reflected their production levels. There's no need to stay with 20-80, other than tradition- which we've definitely got against with more frequency here. The ratings doesn't change your groupings replacement level players. Instead of 45s, you get your pick of low 50s bullshit. You're incorrect. I've mentioned it before.  |
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Post by Pirates GM on Aug 9, 2023 18:53:14 GMT -5
Sean over here totally Seaning up the place.
You are very knowledgeable on all things sim. In this particular instance however, you are incorrect. 1-100 is a far superior ratings system in OOTP, in terms of accurately reflecting player production. The league would be better in 2024 if we considered switching over to it.
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Post by phillies17 on Aug 9, 2023 19:41:14 GMT -5
I did some stat analysis today and completely agree with Jim.
The 20 80 has far too much variation.
A 50 power guy for instance could have between 12 and 24 HRs. The 100 scale eliminates that variation. You will know a 65 is a 20 HR hitter on the 100 scale.
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Post by BrewCrewGuru on Aug 9, 2023 20:07:48 GMT -5
I'm not here to deny anyone their pleasure. I'm just here reserving the right to say "I told you so."
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Post by Elephanti! on Aug 9, 2023 20:22:55 GMT -5
I'm just going to compare with my other OOTP league, they have it set up with 20-80 overall scale but with 100% accurate scouting and 1 point interval skills (don't ask me why a few numbers go over 100, that confuses me too). So my team looks like this:  Personally like having more knowledge than feeling like the actual Oakland A's with no knowledge of even my own team  |
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Post by Pirates GM on Aug 9, 2023 20:32:24 GMT -5
I agree more with Jeff. What we're running into here is unique to OOTP. In Diamond Mind, it was 100% made for leagues like this, so it had no features beyond that.
But in OOTP, we're getting a combination of features used in single player (scouting accuracy, fan loyalty, popularity, budget, etc.) + adaptations so a sim league like ours can work. I'm more in favor of neutralizing most all of the single player features to give us something more equivalent to what Diamond Mind was.
And Shon, you can't say that you aren't entirely that way either. When I mentioned OOTP player personality attributes and player types in the offseason (sparkplug, leader, etc.), you absolutely wanted those turned off because it was extraneous to what we were doing here.
Xoxo.
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Post by BrewCrewGuru on Aug 9, 2023 20:44:08 GMT -5
I didn't want to change at all, so anything that makes things more like DMB is good for me. I just don't think adding nuance to the ratings does fuck all.
If our settings aren't correct, please let us know how to fix it!
My experience is that the ratings only matter to the point where you find out if the player sims well. Doesn't matter how much better the game says he is if he can't get results. I'll introduce you to my entire pitching staff! We call that squad of flailing idiots "Exhibit A."
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Post by sanfran on Aug 12, 2023 12:40:37 GMT -5
Just to clarify in-season player development is turned off. I don't expect grades to be changing and we only sim one actual season. Seems reasonable.
Scouting should be set at 100% accurate. Though at the moment, I'm unable to find the setting to verify.
and according to the documentation on scouting grades: "the numeric range you choose is strictly a matter of preference." And we are able to change anytime, it does not affect game play. Personally, I like the 20-80 scale with hidden details. It obfuscates the finer details and requires GMs to be attentive to trying out strategies, not just assuming the scouting is all powerful.
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Post by Pirates GM on Aug 16, 2023 13:04:30 GMT -5
At least with ZiPS, we had (albeit late) actual projections down to the percentage point, and then quartile ranges to show how likely it was for a player to sim within different production ranges.
The challenge with the 20-80 system is the overwhelming majority of actual usable players fall within the 45-55 range, yet that encompasses a huge variety of production outputs.
So then it's like, "Okay...do their real-life production differences actually factor in, or are the majority of these players essentially the same, and it's up to the sim to just sort them out?"
I don't think it's unreasonable to set ratings to the more accurate 0-100 scale at least for a season or two, until we all see the way OOTP actually works. Despite its popularity in leagues like ours, it is frustratingly vauge.
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