Post by Arizona on Mar 18, 2022 19:34:11 GMT -5
NOTE: I'm sorry for the delay on these. I intended on having these posted sooner, so again....I apologize. Also, this evening when I was putting the numbers together, I found an error in the RP calculations that I need to figure out, so I will get Josh Hader and Edwin Diaz done soon.
For reference, here's a quick summary of the CE calculations...
For 5th year player:
- Player's 5th year ARB salary + projected 6th year ARB salary + projected salary of one free agent season, 2 years from now
- Then take that total and divide by 3, since the CE would cover 3 seasons, to get the proposed CE salary
For 6th year player:
- Player's 6th ARB salary + projected salary of one free agent season, 1 year from now
- Then take that total and divide by 2, since the CE would cover 2 seasons, to get the proposed CE salary
Some other notes:
- There is a minor age multiplier. (It will take more cash to convince a 27 year old to delay his free agency by a season, than it will to convince a 35 year old.)
- There are 3 categories. Hitters, Starters, and Relievers.
- More transparency has been requested, so I've included much more of the background info that contributes to the final number.
- The column that shows '%' is the scaling that compares the player's performance to others. It's the same logic that follows what real agents would use when discussing with GMs on a contract extension. The stats that are compared are real life wRC+ and WAR/600 PA from the last 3 seasons, with the most recent season weighing the most. For example, Alex Bregman's performance is 92.7% as good as the top hitters, so his agent would argue that Alex Bregman's free agent season is worth 92.7% of the what the top-paid hitters get paid.
- ARB is the player's arbitration salary, straight off the roster spreadsheet. This is what the player's salary will be if you decline the CE.
- Proj. 6th is exactly what it sounds like. For 5th year players, it is a guess at what their 6th year arbitration salary will be, based on the quality of player they have been over the past few years.
- FA Season: This is what the FA season is projected to cost. The scaling number mentioned earlier is the biggest determination, as well as what our league ACTUALLY pays for players. Using Alex Bregman as an example, here's how it works:
- The top 30 highest-paid hitters in NSBL have an average salary of $29.894M
- Alex Bregman's performance is 92.7% as good as the 30 best hitters in NSBL
- There's also a slight modifier for higher-performing players, since player value is not linear. (e.g. A 4 WAR player is worth more $$/WAR than a 2 WAR player is). In layman's terms, it takes a stronger CE offer from the team to convince premier players to delay free agency, than it does for average regulars.
- CE+1 column is what the player's salary will be if the CE is accepted.
Feel free to ask any questions!
For reference, here's a quick summary of the CE calculations...
For 5th year player:
- Player's 5th year ARB salary + projected 6th year ARB salary + projected salary of one free agent season, 2 years from now
- Then take that total and divide by 3, since the CE would cover 3 seasons, to get the proposed CE salary
For 6th year player:
- Player's 6th ARB salary + projected salary of one free agent season, 1 year from now
- Then take that total and divide by 2, since the CE would cover 2 seasons, to get the proposed CE salary
Some other notes:
- There is a minor age multiplier. (It will take more cash to convince a 27 year old to delay his free agency by a season, than it will to convince a 35 year old.)
- There are 3 categories. Hitters, Starters, and Relievers.
- More transparency has been requested, so I've included much more of the background info that contributes to the final number.
- The column that shows '%' is the scaling that compares the player's performance to others. It's the same logic that follows what real agents would use when discussing with GMs on a contract extension. The stats that are compared are real life wRC+ and WAR/600 PA from the last 3 seasons, with the most recent season weighing the most. For example, Alex Bregman's performance is 92.7% as good as the top hitters, so his agent would argue that Alex Bregman's free agent season is worth 92.7% of the what the top-paid hitters get paid.
- ARB is the player's arbitration salary, straight off the roster spreadsheet. This is what the player's salary will be if you decline the CE.
- Proj. 6th is exactly what it sounds like. For 5th year players, it is a guess at what their 6th year arbitration salary will be, based on the quality of player they have been over the past few years.
- FA Season: This is what the FA season is projected to cost. The scaling number mentioned earlier is the biggest determination, as well as what our league ACTUALLY pays for players. Using Alex Bregman as an example, here's how it works:
- The top 30 highest-paid hitters in NSBL have an average salary of $29.894M
- Alex Bregman's performance is 92.7% as good as the 30 best hitters in NSBL
- There's also a slight modifier for higher-performing players, since player value is not linear. (e.g. A 4 WAR player is worth more $$/WAR than a 2 WAR player is). In layman's terms, it takes a stronger CE offer from the team to convince premier players to delay free agency, than it does for average regulars.
- CE+1 column is what the player's salary will be if the CE is accepted.
DEADLINE: TBD
Name Team Pos Year Age % ARB Proj. 6th FA Season CE+1 Offer
Alex Bregman ARI 3B 5 28 0.927 10.655 14.882 34.905 20.147
Joe Musgrove ARI SP 5 30 0.861 6.510 9.891 31.656 16.019
German Marquez ARI SP 5 27 0.851 4.287 7.668 34.402 15.452
Blake Snell ATL SP 6 30 0.776 12.063 - 26.027 19.045
Aaron Judge BAL OF 5 28 1.071 9.139 15.217 42.011 22.122
Yoan Moncada BAL 3B 5 27 0.943 9.687 13.914 37.214 20.272
Bran. Woodruff CHC SP 5 29 0.984 5.390 10.915 39.288 18.531
Joey Gallo CHC OF 5 29 0.823 8.224 10.739 27.054 15.339
Brandon Nimmo CHW OF 5 29 0.944 8.331 12.558 33.847 18.245
Jose Berrios CHW SP 5 28 0.833 4.786 7.301 30.739 14.275
Lance McCullers CHW SP 5 29 0.854 3.140 6.521 31.366 13.676
Max Kepler CHW OF 5 29 0.733 8.533 9.604 20.812 12.983
Adam Frazier CHW 2B 5 31 0.626 2.597 3.647 14.972 7.072
Andrew Heaney KC SP 5 31 0.609 8.287 9.337 15.574 11.066
Paul DeJong KC SS 5 29 0.627 5.977 7.027 14.994 9.333
Julio Urias LAA SP 5 26 0.979 6.390 11.915 44.953 21.086
Rafael Devers LAA 3B 5 26 0.822 9.631 12.146 31.083 17.620
Tyler Glasnow OAK SP 5 29 1.011 6.414 12.492 40.364 19.757
Gary Sanchez OAK C 6 30 0.518 5.229 - 9.054 7.142
CJ Cron PHI 1B 6 30 0.700 9.795 - 16.734 13.264
Eddie Rosario PHI OF 6 31 0.555 11.827 - 10.781 11.304
Lucas Giolito PIT SP 5 28 0.987 9.161 14.686 41.381 21.743
Cody Bellinger PIT OF 5 27 0.696 11.138 12.188 18.313 13.880
Matt Olson SF 1B 5 28 0.867 10.423 13.804 31.281 18.503
Trea Turner TB SS 6 29 1.046 11.751 - 39.083 25.417
Jon Gray TB SP 5 31 0.718 5.486 6.557 21.805 11.283
Dansby Swanson TEX SS 5 28 0.685 4.888 5.938 17.189 9.338
Rhys Hoskins TOR 1B 5 29 0.746 6.296 7.367 21.193 11.619
Jesus Aguilar WAS 1B 5 32 0.522 3.646 4.696 9.632 5.991
Feel free to ask any questions!
