|
|
Post by Pirates GM on Jan 8, 2022 6:30:02 GMT -5
Hi Ian,
Overall, I think your 2022 arbitration amounts look really excellent. Thanks for doing them for the league. I do have one quick question though on how the arbitration for 1B/OF Cody Bellinger was derived. In the past- even though I didn't like it- I understood that a player's real-life stats weighed far more heavily than his sim stats. I can't recall the split, but I think it was at least 80:20.
Bellinger had an absolutely abysmal 2021 MLB season, which casts doubt on his long-term success in the league: .542 OPS, 42 OPS+, -1.5 WAR.
So how did his NSBL salary almost double, from $6.782 up to $11.138? Thanks,
JIm
|
|
|
|
Post by BrewCrewGuru on Jan 8, 2022 6:57:14 GMT -5
STAHP!
|
|
|
|
Post by Arizona on Jan 8, 2022 16:57:45 GMT -5
Hi Ian, Overall, I think your 2022 arbitration amounts look really excellent. Thanks for doing them for the league. I do have one quick question though on how the arbitration for 1B/OF Cody Bellinger was derived. In the past- even though I didn't like it- I understood that a player's real-life stats weighed far more heavily than his sim stats. I can't recall the split, but I think it was at least 80:20. Bellinger had an absolutely abysmal 2021 MLB season, which casts doubt on his long-term success in the league: .542 OPS, 42 OPS+, -1.5 WAR. So how did his NSBL salary almost double, from $6.782 up to $11.138? Thanks, JIm Well, Travis does the arbitration numbers, and I agree he does a great job. A couple notes to help answer your question (Travis, please correct me if any of what I'm saying is wrong): 1) Arbitration awards are done as raises, rather than percentage increases. So in Bellinger's case, it's important to think of it as a $4.356M raise, instead of a certain percentage increase. That concept is similar to how MLB players are awarded raises during their arbitration years. It's a minor difference, but one worth pointing out. 2) Arbitration raises are 100% determined by sim performance. The driver behind Bellinger's big raise was the .272/.361/.485 batting line he posted over 648 PA in 2021 for the NSBL Pirates. There is no aspect of a player's real life performance in the arbitration raise calculation. This is because arbitration raises, in real life AND in NSBL, are a raise based on what you have already accomplished. This differs from contract extensions and free agent deals, which in real life and in NSBL, are valued based on the player's expected performance over the next few years. The biggest consequence of Bellinger's 2021 real life season is that his ZiPS projections will be worse for 2022 and beyond, than if he had a 2021 season more in line with his 2017-2019 seasons. We've always had players that perform much better in NSBL than they do in real life, causing their NSBL arbitration salaries to escalate faster than expected based on their real life performance, but Bellinger's case is certainly one of the more interesting ones. I can't remember someone with a 3 year run of excellence, falling off so drastically. I'm looking forward to what his 2022 has in store. |
|
|
|
Post by Pirates GM on Jan 8, 2022 17:40:11 GMT -5
Thanks Ian for the answer. Here’s my follow-up I guess: At what point did we flip-flop and start basing raises off of sim performance?
Because for years, I believe we based it off of real life, because the argument was that determined what the ZiPS would actually be next year, as the sim performance was more or less irrelevant, as it was a stand alone season. I didn’t like that, because it resulted in big pay raises for some players who never simmed all that well. In this case though, I figured it would finally benefit me.
When did we switch to sim stats to determine raises? Thanks!
JIm
|
|
|
|
Post by Arizona on Jan 8, 2022 18:06:15 GMT -5
Thanks Ian for the answer. Here’s my follow-up I guess: At what point did we flip-flop and start basing raises off of sim performance? Because for years, I believe we based it off of real life, because the argument was that determined what the ZiPS would actually be next year, as the sim performance was more or less irrelevant, as it was a stand alone season. I didn’t like that, because it resulted in big pay raises for some players who never simmed all that well. In this case though, I figured it would finally benefit me. When did we switch to sim stats to determine raises? Thanks! JIm As far as I know, we’ve always used sim performances to determine arbitration raises. I started tracking them in 2013-2014 to help plan for my team finances, and I was under the impression it was all sim performance. Travis can confirm or deny. |
|
|
|
Post by Pirates GM on Jan 8, 2022 20:52:38 GMT -5
Dammit. This is a conspiracy that goes right to the top, everyone. You all see it.  JIm |
|
|
|
Post by BrewCrewGuru on Jan 8, 2022 21:32:49 GMT -5
STAHP!
|
|
