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Post by Pirates GM on Jan 2, 2022 14:18:33 GMT -5
So while the Pirates cap number looks bleak (as it does to begin every offseason), the exciting thing this year is that all of my overage and then some are tied up in option years that I could decline. So while I don't have to trade, it would be nice to find some of these studs a new home...
C Buster Posey 28.975 2021 yes As you might know, Posey had a pretty huge real-life year in 2021, to the tune of a 3.5 WAR, .889 OPS (140 OPS+). He then promptly retired. Luckily, ZiPS always sims the good players one additional year, which coincides with Posey's 2022 option. Luckily too, he's already received his 2022 projection:
2.3 WAR, 105 OPS+
I will cover 10% of his salary, which is what I would pay to decline his option. That's still going to be among the Top 5 C projections in NSBL this year.
LF/RF/DH J.D. Martinez 22.500 2021 yes Martinez was acquired for the Pirates 2021 playoff run, but simmed so poorly that he didn't make some of my postseason rosters. He had a great rebound year in real life (28 HR, 99 RBI, .867 OPS, 126 OPS+), so even though Boston's ZiPS aren't out yet, I think he is going to be comfortably north of a 3.0 WAR player, with Ex, Vg power ratings.
RP Yusmeiro Petit 3.250 2021 yes CL Lou Trivino 5.750 2021 yes Petit had a down year for Oakland, but his ERA+ over the past 3 seasons are still 159, 255, 104, so he should get a nice projection. Trivino was the real-life A's closer last year, and had a great 3.18 ERA, 22 Sv, 129 ERA+ season.
jameskrug@gmail.com
JIm
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Post by Pirates GM on Jan 5, 2022 20:04:28 GMT -5
Update, just so nobody thinks I'm trying to sell them a bill of goods. Boston's ZiPS are out, and JD Martinez's projection was not nearly as good as I thought it would be:
25 HR 86 RBI 115 OPS+ 1.7 WAR
Thanks,
JIm
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Post by Pirates GM on Jan 21, 2022 19:30:21 GMT -5
So. I am going to say words in my block, and you will all read these words and think on them. Two things are equally true:
1. JD Martinez and Buster Posey are overpaid for 1-year deals. 2. There is value in certainty of only a 1-year deal for an age 30+ player with guaranteed production.
I know I am not getting much trade action because the thought is, "Stupid Jim! We will just wait you out until you decline their options, and sign them at a fraction of the cost. Muhaha!"
Yes. Maybe. But you may not be factoring in the following:
X. Whomever signs JD Martinez is going to give him at least a 3-year deal, so you're taking on uncertainty with two future years. 5. Buster Posey got the "retirement bonus" ZiPS. But there have been many situations like this where GMs pushed free agent bidding by intentionally signing a retired player to a multi-year deal, willingly taking on dead money in the next year to try to outbid his opponent. J. At 2.3 WAR, Posey is still a Top-5 catcher for the year. He is.
All I am looking for is a solid righty RP, since my pen had some losses to arbitration and the nefarious KBO. Hit me up at jameskrug@gmail.com
JIm
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