Post by Arizona on Mar 12, 2021 21:11:32 GMT -5
For reference, here's a quick summary of the CE calculations...
For 5th year player:
- Player's 5th year ARB salary + projected 6th year ARB salary + projected salary of one free agent season, 2 years from now
- Then take that total and divide by 3, since the CE would cover 3 seasons, to get the proposed CE salary
For 6th year player:
- Player's 6th ARB salary + projected salary of one free agent season, 1 year from now
- Then take that total and divide by 2, since the CE would cover 2 seasons, to get the proposed CE salary
Some other notes:
- There is a minor age multiplier. (It will take more cash to convince a 27 year old to delay his free agency by a season, than it will to convince a 35 year old.)
-Currently, the projected salary of that one free agent season is achieved by comparing performance to players at the same position. There are categories for C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, SS, OF, SP, RP There are now only 3 categories. Hitters, Starters, and Relievers. That's the biggest change that was made. Consensus (from the committee, various GMs, and myself) was that the positional buckets were not good. They were causing huge bubbles at certain positions (OF,1B) and crazy bargains at other positions (notably C and SS last year). There were no high-end catchers this year to see the result, but two high end SS, Trevor Story and Trea Turner, are both much more expensive than they would've been in the old system where SS were their own group.
- Jim asked for more transparency, so this year, I've included much more of the background info that contributes to the final number.
- The column that shows '%' is the scaling that compares the player's performance to others. It's the same logic that follows what real agents would use when discussing with GMs on a contract extension. The stats that are compared are real life wRC+ and WAR/600 PA from the last 3 seasons, with the most recent season weighing the most. (NOTE: because the 2020 season was so short and made for quirky short-sample stat lines, I decreased the weight of the 2020 season to a little bit less than usual.) For example, Trevor Story's performance is 93.7% as good as the top hitters, so his agent would argue that Trevor Story's free agent season is worth 93.7% of the what the top-paid hitters get paid.
- ARB is the player's arbitration salary, straight off the roster spreadsheet. This is what the player's salary will be if you decline the CE.
- Proj. 6th is exactly what it sounds like. For 5th year players, it is a guess at what their 6th year will be, based on the quality of player they have been over the past few years.
- FA Season: This is what the FA season is projected to cost. The scaling number mentioned earlier is the biggest determination, as well as what our league ACTUALLY pays for players. Using the Trevor Story example, here's how it works:
- The top 30 highest-paid hitters in NSBL have an average salary of $25.410M
- Trevor Story's performance is 93.7% as good as the 30 best hitters in NSBL
- There's also a slight modifier for higher-performing players, since player value is not linear. (e.g. A 4 WAR player is worth more $$/WAR than a 2 WAR player is). In layman's terms, it takes a stronger CE offer from the team to convince premier players to delay free agency, than it does for average regulars.
- CE+1 column is what the player's salary will be if the CE is accepted.
DEADLINE: Decisions on these are due by 10:00pm on March 22, 2021
(a non-response will default as declining the CE)
EDIT: Corrected Chris Taylor -Ian
For 5th year player:
- Player's 5th year ARB salary + projected 6th year ARB salary + projected salary of one free agent season, 2 years from now
- Then take that total and divide by 3, since the CE would cover 3 seasons, to get the proposed CE salary
For 6th year player:
- Player's 6th ARB salary + projected salary of one free agent season, 1 year from now
- Then take that total and divide by 2, since the CE would cover 2 seasons, to get the proposed CE salary
Some other notes:
- There is a minor age multiplier. (It will take more cash to convince a 27 year old to delay his free agency by a season, than it will to convince a 35 year old.)
-
- Jim asked for more transparency, so this year, I've included much more of the background info that contributes to the final number.
- The column that shows '%' is the scaling that compares the player's performance to others. It's the same logic that follows what real agents would use when discussing with GMs on a contract extension. The stats that are compared are real life wRC+ and WAR/600 PA from the last 3 seasons, with the most recent season weighing the most. (NOTE: because the 2020 season was so short and made for quirky short-sample stat lines, I decreased the weight of the 2020 season to a little bit less than usual.) For example, Trevor Story's performance is 93.7% as good as the top hitters, so his agent would argue that Trevor Story's free agent season is worth 93.7% of the what the top-paid hitters get paid.
- ARB is the player's arbitration salary, straight off the roster spreadsheet. This is what the player's salary will be if you decline the CE.
- Proj. 6th is exactly what it sounds like. For 5th year players, it is a guess at what their 6th year will be, based on the quality of player they have been over the past few years.
- FA Season: This is what the FA season is projected to cost. The scaling number mentioned earlier is the biggest determination, as well as what our league ACTUALLY pays for players. Using the Trevor Story example, here's how it works:
- The top 30 highest-paid hitters in NSBL have an average salary of $25.410M
- Trevor Story's performance is 93.7% as good as the 30 best hitters in NSBL
- There's also a slight modifier for higher-performing players, since player value is not linear. (e.g. A 4 WAR player is worth more $$/WAR than a 2 WAR player is). In layman's terms, it takes a stronger CE offer from the team to convince premier players to delay free agency, than it does for average regulars.
- CE+1 column is what the player's salary will be if the CE is accepted.
Name Team Pos Year Age % ARB Proj. 6th FA Season CE+1 Offer
Trevor Story ARI SS 5 29 0.937 7.410 11.637 28.579 15.875
Joc Pederson ARI OF 6 29 0.674 11.783 - 15.412 13.598
Aaron Hicks ARI OF 6 32 0.765 9.481 - 19.380 14.431
M. Conforto CHW OF 6 28 0.885 15.112 - 27.150 21.131
Keone Kela CHW RP 6 28 0.550 5.994 - 5.147 5.571
David Dahl LAA OF 5 27 0.454 4.947 5.997 7.613 6.186
Josh Hader LAA RP 5 27 0.975 8.415 13.940 14.921 12.425
Corey Seager LAA SS 5 27 0.806 5.313 7.828 24.792 12.644
Ketel Marte NYY 2B 5 28 0.769 6.601 8.249 21.541 12.130
Ross Stripling NYY SP 5 32 0.609 4.107 5.157 17.667 8.977
Gary Sanchez OAK C 5 29 0.514 4.179 5.229 9.401 6.270
Edwin Diaz OAK RP 5 27 0.950 7.148 12.673 14.547 11.456
Dylan Bundy OAK SP 6 29 0.652 8.523 - 19.915 14.219
Eddie Rosario PHI OF 5 30 0.648 9.291 10.341 14.819 11.484
Sean Manaea PHI SP 5 29 0.620 5.198 6.248 18.959 10.135
Chris Taylor PIT OF 6 31 0.701 5.673 - 17.817 11.745
Kyle Schwarber PIT OF 6 28 0.620 9.015 - 14.880 11.947
Trea Turner TB SS 5 28 0.939 10.103 14.330 30.054 18.162
Austin Barnes TEX C 6 32 0.581 4.580 - 10.101 7.341
Jesse Winker TEX OF 6 28 0.742 6.954 - 19.785 13.370
Blake Treinen TEX RP 6 33 0.750 9.726 - 8.333 9.029
Robbie Ray TEX SP 6 30 0.446 11.268 - 9.081 10.175
Carlos Rodon WAS SP 6 29 0.363 6.980 - 7.392 7.186
DEADLINE: Decisions on these are due by 10:00pm on March 22, 2021
(a non-response will default as declining the CE)
EDIT: Corrected Chris Taylor -Ian
