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Post by Pirates GM on Dec 13, 2020 14:03:11 GMT -5
Does anyone else feel like the ZiPS projections are fundamentally changing? Perhaps someone like Connor will blow this theory out of the water, but this is the vibe I'm feeling:
1. It seems like every team anymore only has 3-4 guys tops with ERA+ and OPS+ of 120 and above.
2. It feels like allllllll of the other simmable players are all falling in the 80-105 ERA+/OPS+ range.
If so, it almost feels like our strategy as GMs has to change: Get lucky enough to get a couple superstars on your team, hope to hell they actually sim like their projections, and then just fill out the rest of your roster by throwing a ton of guys at the wall, and just cross your fingers that your random dudes outperform everyone else's random dudes.
It seriously feels like 80% of guys are only separated by about one standard deviation or so this year.
JIm
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Post by Cubbies on Dec 14, 2020 15:12:29 GMT -5
I don't think there is any part of ZIPS I am particularly happy with anymore. It so rarely projects improvement, and when there is improvement by a player IRL, ZIPS always predicts a regression. Feels like it can take years to get ZIPS to catch up, and then it will immediately start to predict a coming decline.
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Post by Pirates GM on Dec 15, 2020 14:23:14 GMT -5
I don't think there is any part of ZIPS I am particularly happy with anymore. It so rarely projects improvement, and when there is improvement by a player IRL, ZIPS always predicts a regression. Feels like it can take years to get ZIPS to catch up, and then it will immediately start to predict a coming decline. 100%. This. It seems like the only players who garner the benefit of the doubt are elite-level players. It also seems to really hurt players who break out between ages 25-28. ZiPS always treats the breakout as a statistical anomaly, so they wind up having to tear it up for 3 years straight just to see an improvement. And by that point, they start to get nailed with age regressions. Would love to switch to OOTP someday if possibe. JIm |
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Whitesox
AAA
I'm just here for the free kool-aid
Posts: 773
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Post by Whitesox on Dec 18, 2020 12:58:19 GMT -5
I think the committee needs to address the relief pitchers who get starter ratings on the DMB disk. We have let it slide in the past (and I have benefited, and could still do so this coming year with Diego Castillo and Brusdar Graterol projecting like CY Young candidates). But having so many RPs just become full-time starters deviates us from the attempt at realness that we all like about this league. I am not sure what a fair way would be to get rid of this situation, if the committee went pitcher-by-pitcher it could become subjective, and any arbitrary method could hurt relievers who are not/have been strickly 'openers'. Not sure what the solution is, or even if there is a reasonable solution. But I believe this is something for the committee and league to discuss this winter.
Guys in other leagues, it would be nice to hear how this is handled in those leagues.
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Post by Pirates GM on Dec 19, 2020 12:26:05 GMT -5
I dunno. No offense Hoppy, but I would put this way down on the list of concerns for the league. My impression was that if ZiPS gave a pitcher a 36 G / 3 GS rating, he would not be very effective if you used him as a full-time starter. Frankly, I think a far greater concern is elite players simming like garbage, and garbage players simming well above replacement level, but sadly that's on Diamond Mind, so nothing we can do about that  JIm |
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Whitesox
AAA
I'm just here for the free kool-aid
Posts: 773
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Post by Whitesox on Dec 19, 2020 14:35:03 GMT -5
I agree that DMB is a shit show. But we can't change that.
In the past, these types of guys have been very effective. In 2019 Liam Hendriks finished with a 3.29 ERA in 177 IP for me, Diego Castillo also pitched incredibly for me in the rotation that year. Chad Green last season for the Diamondbacks had a 2.85 ERA in 186 IP with 249 K's and was the ace of the WS champion.
These guys typically are only 5 inning starters, but its a pretty damn hot 5 innings.
I'm cool with it either way. This might be a non issue. I'm fine benefiting from this oddity again this year, or correcting it and getting these guys in the pen where they belong.
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Post by Cubbies on Dec 19, 2020 15:44:36 GMT -5
I'm not a huge proponent of telling owners how they are allowed to use their players. That becomes a slippery slope. Are we going to start to put Plate Appearance limits on guys who only get so many projected? What about innings. If I have an SP missed most of two seasons with various injuries, and then only gets projected to pitch 120 innings even though they are a fulltime starter when healthy, are we going to say he doesn't get to pitch the whole season for us? Or a young SP who was in AA last year and gets a good projection in rate stats, but only 80IP?
Who'd have thought that DMB giving a reliever/starter two separate identities on the disk and letting owners choose which one to use would be the best way to do it? Cause I remember when Aroldis Chapman was on the sim twice, once as a starter and once as a reliever and I had to choose which one to use.
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Whitesox
AAA
I'm just here for the free kool-aid
Posts: 773
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Post by Whitesox on Dec 19, 2020 21:23:29 GMT -5
I'm not a huge proponent of telling owners how they are allowed to use their players. That becomes a slippery slope. Are we going to start to put Plate Appearance limits on guys who only get so many projected? What about innings. If I have an SP missed most of two seasons with various injuries, and then only gets projected to pitch 120 innings even though they are a fulltime starter when healthy, are we going to say he doesn't get to pitch the whole season for us? Or a young SP who was in AA last year and gets a good projection in rate stats, but only 80IP? Who'd have thought that DMB giving a reliever/starter two separate identities on the disk and letting owners choose which one to use would be the best way to do it? Cause I remember when Aroldis Chapman was on the sim twice, once as a starter and once as a reliever and I had to choose which one to use. I agree with all of this. I just haven't seen DMB/ZIPS give out two different projects for a RP or SP. All I'm bringing up is with openers becoming more popular, more RPs will be given a handful of GS on ZIPS, which will translate to a SP rating on the disk, which extrapolates their RP zips as a full-time starter. So there will be more and more CY Young seasons by random RPs in the future. Which is not something that happens in RL, so why not attempt to see if there is a possible remedy. |
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Post by Pirates GM on Dec 20, 2020 18:35:50 GMT -5
1. I really like OOTP.
2. I get really confused if both ZiPS and Diamond Mind are at fault, or just Diamond Mind. I tend to think they are both to blame, with DM moreso.
JIm
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Post by KC Royals Nate on Dec 21, 2020 1:07:00 GMT -5
I don’t know for sure if Zips has changed other than it seems Dan is cramming more data into Zips over the years- statcast, playoffs, X-Stats, etc- that probably offers a con to every pro it might spit out. So
If a guy has a nice statistical season, but his exit velocity wasn’t the best and his xSLG is a bit low, then Zips will ding him now. I don’t know how much Zips is really weighting the 2020 season since it was a 2 month blip. From what Dan said, 2020 weighting will be lighter than any other season he has ever done, and he basically was projecting players to finish their 2020 with the rest of his 2020 Zips (if I read him right).
One thing from Jim’s initial comment that struck me— aren’t MOST teams in MLB relying on 3-4 “stars” and hoping the rest of the roster plays (sims) well? I think part of the fun/frustration is when a guy who you expect to do well struggles, or a cheap pickup surprises, and performs well. To me, that may make you, as an active owner, want to adjust your strategy. No MLB team just plugs a 26 man roster in April 1 and says “we’re good”. And if we just looked at projections to see who should do well and should win, let’s just use Connors projections, and take the work away from the sim.
Zips, and any projection, are really just a midpoint. Some will sim better, some will sim worse. And since we tend to limit the pitching pool based on our roster decisions, we shouldn’t be surprised to see batters underperform when they aren’t seeing some of the really bad pitchers that are typically seeing or being Zipped to.
OOTP question—doesn’t it use Zips too? Or at least the sim leagues like this?
As for the RP getting a starter rating- I think DMBO has a minimum number of GS a player must have plus a look at their previous usage to determine if they get a Starter rating.
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Post by Pirates GM on Dec 21, 2020 10:43:45 GMT -5
Great post. I'm pretty sure OOTP is an entirely different projection system than ZiPS. Now, Diamond Mind should be able to take the OOTP numbers and sim with them.
So our DM software can use both ZiPS and OOTP, but OOTP is not ZiPS.
JIm
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Post by Cubbies on Dec 27, 2020 19:51:20 GMT -5
For anyone interested in checking out OotP, they're offering a sale right now. Only $5 instead of the normal 20.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2021 13:33:48 GMT -5
Ootp is based off zips too. They also have their own and do a combo of the two. But zips are very important in ootp
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Post by Pirates GM on Jan 3, 2021 15:07:28 GMT -5
I actually did not know that. I assumed OOTP was its own separate projection system.
JIm
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Post by raysgm on Jan 4, 2021 16:23:40 GMT -5
Just adding my $0.02 here as somebody who has also benefited from this loophole but didn't feel great about it.
I think a very logical/very easy to implement fix would be to grant SP eligibility based on IP/G. Something like anything over 2 IP per projected G would give guys SP eligibility while eliminating the weird Chad Green corner cases.
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