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Post by Texas GM on Feb 27, 2021 18:47:05 GMT -5
I love when trades that you never saw coming happen. When I saw Dunning on the block and a young catcher was the request, I had an instant flashback to a very similar trade I made years back, Christian Bethancourt for Robbie Ray. It was a challenge trade then and it’s one now. Hoping it works out for us both, but I’’ve been a fan of Dunning for a good while.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2021 21:35:41 GMT -5
Anyone who trades an All-Star, perennial MVP candidate for a package including 2 Pirate prospects is clearly looking to claim diminished mental capacity at a later date.
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Post by Cubbies on Feb 28, 2021 21:38:46 GMT -5
Anyone who trades an All-Star, perennial MVP candidate for a package including 2 Pirate prospects is clearly looking to claim diminished mental capacity at a later date. I claim it now.
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Post by BrewCrewGuru on Feb 28, 2021 21:40:09 GMT -5
Pirates fans be bitter, y0!
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2021 22:08:14 GMT -5
Pirates fans be bitter, y0! You don't know the half of it
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Post by Cubbies on Feb 28, 2021 22:20:21 GMT -5
Anyone who trades an All-Star, perennial MVP candidate for a package including 2 Pirate prospects is clearly looking to claim diminished mental capacity at a later date. Honestly, I think there is a real chance that this was the best time to trade him. It's not a secret that he was one of the Astros who was getting the signs. The removal of that, in addition to how he did last season without it, means there is a non-zero chance that 2020 is his new baseline.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2021 22:24:56 GMT -5
Honestly, I think there is a real chance that this was the best time to trade him. It's not a secret that he was one of the Astros who was getting the signs. The removal of that, in addition to how he did last season without it, means there is a non-zero chance that 2020 is his new baseline. I don't disagree with that and thought that as soon as I saw the trade, but the chance to bash the Pirates was overwhelming.
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Post by Pirates GM on Feb 28, 2021 22:34:51 GMT -5
Joe (end of February): "I just traded Bregman. I'm officially rebuilding." Joe (end of September): "Woah! Crazy that I won the NL Central with a rebuilding ballclub by exceeding my Pythagorean projection by 15 games." JIm
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Post by Cubbies on Mar 1, 2021 8:37:57 GMT -5
Joe (end of February): "I just traded Bregman. I'm officially rebuilding." Joe (end of September): "Woah! Crazy that I won the NL Central with a rebuilding ballclub by exceeding my Pythagorean projection by 15 games." JIm That won't be happening again. I'm not running the sim this year. Alright, now that JIm just blew his tinfoil hat, the real reason it won't happen is because my team isn't good enough. Wasn't before the trade and won't be after. It wasn't even the best team last year but lucky for me the best team in my division rarely sent in MPs to account for hot and cold hitters or pitchers. My top 3 hitters all exceeded expectations and nearly ever week I adjusted my lineups based on how my hitters had been doing recently. It's why Blackmon had so few AB and a down year. He started slow and I had to pull him cause it was hurting the team. So his AB stayed low and he never got a chance to correct really. He had some good streaks in there but was cold more than he was hot. You'd be surprised how often the perennially good teams send in MPs when compared to teams who underwhelm or aren't good. Guys like Tracy, Ty, Connor, Brian, Hayes, and even Sean who outsims his projections send in 18 to 26 MPs a season. Constantly tinkering and adjusting for hot and cold streaks. They don't set it and forget it. It does make a difference.
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Post by BrewCrewGuru on Mar 1, 2021 10:16:59 GMT -5
He's not wrong. The number one way to out-perform your projections and make Connor's formulas hate you is to set your lineup every week and play pitching matchups.
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Post by phillies17 on Mar 1, 2021 10:37:29 GMT -5
What are you guys talking about? Submitting and uploading MP's? That's fake news, you should not believe everything you see on the internet.
Let me know when that actually is a thing and I will start submitting MP's and try to win.
Sorry, could not resist.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2021 11:01:59 GMT -5
Constantly tinkering and adjusting for hot and cold streaks. They don't set it and forget it. It does make a difference. Wait - are hot and cold streaks programmed into DMB? I had assumed that any hot or cold streaks are just due to randomness. Example: If a player with a .350 OBP runs at .100 OBP for a week, my assumption is that the next week the most median outcome is .350 OBP. I agree there's a benefit to managing lineups to an opponent, but based on past performance seems surprising.
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Post by Pirates GM on Mar 1, 2021 11:49:52 GMT -5
Constantly tinkering and adjusting for hot and cold streaks. They don't set it and forget it. It does make a difference. Wait - are hot and cold streaks programmed into DMB? I had assumed that any hot or cold streaks are just due to randomness. Example: If a player with a .350 OBP runs at .100 OBP for a week, my assumption is that the next week the most median outcome is .350 OBP. I agree there's a benefit to managing lineups to an opponent, but based on past performance seems surprising. This is an excellent point, and it’s more where I’m at. And I’ve mentioned before that underperforming hitters seem to surge in August-September to approach where their projections say they should be. We’re these actual humans, I would totally get behind Joe’s hot/cold argument. Is there any documentation of this being an intentional part of DMB’s programming? JIm
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2021 12:22:37 GMT -5
I've heard from others, who have spoken with DMB programmers on a slightly different matter, but related. I mentioned to as friend / player once that Mike Trout always hits close to his projection in the SIM, even on a bad team, but getting to sim the games myself and watch the outcomes, he never hits that Homer when it counts, never hits in a big spot that could help us win. but instead makes up his numbers when the game doesn't matter, blow out one way or another. like the most unclench hitter ever. My fiend said he has spoken with programmers and that isn't the case, I have perception bias. but... shit, I tell you what, every time Nolan Arenado use to make an error @ 3B, he hit a HR in his next AB, and one my really bad CFA Pirates, Mike Trout makes the all star team every year, comes close to hitting his zips numbers, but I'll be damned if he EVER gets a hit when it matters...
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Post by BrewCrewGuru on Mar 1, 2021 12:26:16 GMT -5
You have to remember that there is more at work than just players having projection numbers. There are league totals to be met and stadium totals to be met. The program is running thousands of matchups every time you fire it up with many different potential outcomes. Just like in real life, this will lead to fluctuating performance based on those matchups. Just like real life, you can attempt to change the trending performance by making adjustments. I do this by sitting hitters or pitchers that may have a week of mostly bad matchups and bringing them back in a week where they have better matchups.
It's not rocket surgery. It's math. Happy Monday!
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2021 12:41:12 GMT -5
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Post by Cubbies on Mar 1, 2021 12:47:03 GMT -5
Every week when I set my line-ups, I run my team batting totals for the previous two weeks, to see how my guys are doing. Based on that, I move guys up or down my line-up against RHP and LHP. Or I take them completely out and let someone else get a shot for the week.
Last year I ended up playing Biggio a lot to replace Blackmon in the lineup. Sometimes in RF. Sometimes I would put Biggio at 2B, Cano at 1B, and Gallo in RF. I'd mess with shit to keep hot hitters in and cold hitters out of the lineup, or maybe move them to #8 instead of #3 if I had to.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2021 13:18:53 GMT -5
You have to remember that there is more at work than just players having projection numbers. There are league totals to be met and stadium totals to be met. The program is running thousands of matchups every time you fire it up with many different potential outcomes. Just like in real life, this will lead to fluctuating performance based on those matchups. Just like real life, you can attempt to change the trending performance by making adjustments. I do this by sitting hitters or pitchers that may have a week of mostly bad matchups and bringing them back in a week where they have better matchups. It's not rocket surgery. It's math. Happy Monday! - There are league totals to be met and stadium totals to be met. If I'm understanding correctly this would influence all players equally. I'm not sure how this would influence changing a lineup (with the exception of which stadium you're in) which we'll come back to. - Just like in real life, this will lead to fluctuating performance based on those matchups.Agreed. Players will have a built in advantage or disadvantage against different pitchers, stadiums, fielders, etc. No indication that past performance is a signal to future performance. - I do this by sitting hitters or pitchers that may have a week of mostly bad matchups and bringing them back in a week where they have better matchups.
Agreed some players will have advantages against different pitchers and different stadiums. Kind of common sense. I'm not suggesting a .350 OBP player should be exactly .350 OBP every week. Is there any indication that past performance influences future performance from a standard baseline? If a player performs poorly in Week 1 and 2, is he any more likely to perform poorly in Week 3? (ignoring anything related to matchup, pitching, stadium, fielders, weather, etc.)
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2021 13:32:35 GMT -5
well... I think there is something to be said for players that perform no where near their projections, too. it does happen. consider Bryce Harper in Yankees Stadium with a solid line up around here, facing a bunch of meh RHP. and that being the case, there is something to be said for sim result having an effect on results going forward, yes I would say the sim results are a combination of the ratings / stats fed in, the stats achieved, then ball park factors, and such... so in short a player on a hot streak / cold stream is likely to continue until some other variable is introduced. maybe cold streak is due to fatigue and when rested, better.
I don't its easily quantifiable.
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Post by phillies17 on Mar 1, 2021 14:21:15 GMT -5
If you sim enough seasons you start to see trends. Once the sim path is set, it typically continues on for the season. Some lean pitching while others are hitter heavy. This past season I knew early on we were sim'ing my worst case scenario sim path. My ballpark neutral built team with a staff of league average or better pitchers as a group had the worst staff ERA in the league. Every one of them under achieved. I also happened to be a .500 home team yet historically bad on the road (which defies my team structure) despite not building to the strengths of my ballpark and should have been a .500 road team.
The DMB algorithms are geared to Tony Larussa thinking. It heavily plays on matchup and ball park effect. There are a couple situations DMB really loves that can be exploited if you know how. The problem with this league is getting those players. The other issue is DMB relies on ballpark effect and splits while ZIPs builds in ballpark effect in its projections and creates splits for the game on a somewhat mysterious model structure. This mix of double algorithm influences pre built into the system, coupled with an entirely different usage pattern of our lineups compared to RL and you can get some big deviations from typical sim projections.
Once you get enough games into the season you can see overall trends that will sustain itself collectively. Individually players can either bounce back or drop back to earth to align themselves with their middle sim probability which can drive team success. MP adjustments geared towards the sim path can positively influence overall success.
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Post by Pirates GM on Mar 1, 2021 15:13:37 GMT -5
Is there any indication that past performance influences future performance from a standard baseline? If a player performs poorly in Week 1 and 2, is he any more likely to perform poorly in Week 3? (ignoring anything related to matchup, pitching, stadium, fielders, weather, etc.) There have been compelling arguments for this on both sides, but so far I'm #TeamCleveland. Well done, JIm
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Post by phillies17 on Mar 1, 2021 15:22:33 GMT -5
Is there any indication that past performance influences future performance from a standard baseline? If a player performs poorly in Week 1 and 2, is he any more likely to perform poorly in Week 3? (ignoring anything related to matchup, pitching, stadium, fielders, weather, etc.) There have been compelling arguments for this on both sides, but so far I'm #TeamCleveland. Well done, JIm The sim is just an output of data. Existing data is not capable of providing influence. If the factors that triggered the data output do not change then there should be an expectation that those influences will continue to provide similar resultant data. An MP for example, is something that can alter the factors that influence data. If a player is under performing to his mid projection, it could be just a lack of data to pull him to the norm, or it could be an influencer such as L/R overplay by other teams driving down his performance which left unchecked should continue to cause said player to continue on an under perform trajectory.
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Post by Cubbies on Mar 1, 2021 16:24:40 GMT -5
There have been compelling arguments for this on both sides, but so far I'm #TeamCleveland. Well done, JIm The sim is just an output of data. Existing data is not capable of providing influence. If the factors that triggered the data output do not change then there should be an expectation that those influences will continue to provide similar resultant data. An MP for example, is something that can alter the factors that influence data. If a player is under performing to his mid projection, it could be just a lack of data to pull him to the norm, or it could be an influencer such as L/R overplay by other teams driving down his performance which left unchecked should continue to cause said player to continue on an under perform trajectory. Part of Newton's first law of motion "...an object in motion stays in motion with the same speed and in the same direction unless acted upon by an unbalanced force."
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Post by Pirates GM on Mar 2, 2021 5:32:56 GMT -5
That’s not entirely correct. The full law states, “An object in motion OR AT REST...”
Newton was describing that things tended to stay in their original state- whatever that was- unless acted upon. So don’t try to use the words of one of my favorite physicists to justify your fantasy baseball strategy.
Newton could not have predicted baseball- let alone fantasy baseball- would’ve existed in the late 1600’s. Nor that his First Law could be thrown out the window by GMs like Patrick operating second teams under aliases.
#MattKevin
JIm
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Post by Texas GM on Mar 2, 2021 7:21:49 GMT -5
That’s not entirely correct. The full law states, “An object in motion OR AT REST...” Newton was describing that things tended to stay in their original state- whatever that was- unless acted upon. So don’t try to use the words of one of my favorite physicists to justify your fantasy baseball strategy. Newton could not have predicted baseball- let alone fantasy baseball- would’ve existed in the late 1600’s. Nor that his First Law could be thrown out the window by GMs like Patrick operating second teams under aliases. #MattKevin JIm So there's no truth to the Tinker to Newton to Chance baseball stories? I'm confused.
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Post by Arizona on Mar 2, 2021 8:09:54 GMT -5
That’s not entirely correct. The full law states, “An object in motion OR AT REST...” Newton was describing that things tended to stay in their original state- whatever that was- unless acted upon. So don’t try to use the words of one of my favorite physicists to justify your fantasy baseball strategy. Newton could not have predicted baseball- let alone fantasy baseball- would’ve existed in the late 1600’s. Nor that his First Law could be thrown out the window by GMs like Patrick operating second teams under aliases. #MattKevin JIm I’m just glad that I’m not the only one who has used the phrase “one of my favorite physicists” #nerd
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Post by Deleted on Mar 2, 2021 8:26:43 GMT -5
im just glad a perfectly serious inquiry got derailed, and it wasn't my fault this time. apologies to the SpidersGM
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Post by BrewCrewGuru on Mar 2, 2021 9:05:36 GMT -5
I used to have a love/hate relationship with math. Now I have a love/hate relationship with explaining math. Thanks for everyone's contribution to my new reality. I hate it.
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Post by seattlegm on Mar 2, 2021 9:46:49 GMT -5
That’s not entirely correct. The full law states, “An object in motion OR AT REST...” Newton was describing that things tended to stay in their original state- whatever that was- unless acted upon. So don’t try to use the words of one of my favorite physicists to justify your fantasy baseball strategy. Newton could not have predicted baseball- let alone fantasy baseball- would’ve existed in the late 1600’s. Nor that his First Law could be thrown out the window by GMs like Patrick operating second teams under aliases. #MattKevin JIm Get over it!! Jesus fucking Christ it's been 3 years (at least). I ran both franchises and never colluded or made an unfair trade (unlike the predator GM's trying to take advantage). Your stupid comment doesn't even make sense anyway!
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Post by phillies17 on Mar 2, 2021 11:40:04 GMT -5
In a single post Jim perfectly provides examples of the first Three Laws of NSBL Forums.
1st Law is derailment for the topic must occur at the first opportunity
2nd Law is insult is not limited to participants in a particular thread
3ed Law is the past is always an open topic for insult / discussion
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